16 February 2011

SNP whisker ahead in Holyrood poll...

Fortune is a pucker-faced old beldam. Just as a peaty jaunt is indicated, she brings gifts, with a goading wink and a rotten, amorous smile. This morning, our abacus-wielding friends in Ipsos-MORI have published the anticipated February round of their Scottish Public Opinion Monitor. The top line data is now available here. Unfortunately, the detailed numbers are not yet available. Happily, the detailed computer tables have been published, disaggregated by age, gender and many of the other old familiar social categories regular readers of such polling will be familiar with. The report runs to 119 pages and ranges far beyond the party political keynotes, noted below. Questions include respondents' apprehensions about which are the most pressing matters of public concern. Unfortunately, however, I still don't have the immediate time to take a detailed look at what this poll might imply for my particular bugbear: women's voting intentions, the SNP and the gender voting gap. As you will recall, the last Scots poll presented a decidedly bleak picture for nationalists on that score. Clearly, these findings seem much more encouraging. As those of you who purchased a copy of the Times this morning or who pay your Murdoch tariff will know, the top line voting figures, amongst those certain to vote were as follows...

In Holyrood constituencies...
  • SNP 37%
  • Labour 36%
  • Conservative 13%
  • Liberal Democrat 10%
  • Greens 2%
  • SSP 1%
  • Other 1%

On the Holyrood list, amongst those certain to vote...
  • SNP 35%
  • Labour 33%
  • Conservative 13%
  • Liberal Democrat 10%
  • Greens 6%
  • SSP 1%
  • Other 2%

Asked, Are you satisfied with the way Alex Salmond is doing his job as First Minister? Respondents said:
  • Satisfied 51% (54% November 2010)
  • Dissatisfied 35% (37% November 2010)
  • Don't know 14% (9% November 2010)

Same question(ish), on how well Dame Bella of Doily is doing "her job"...
  • Satisfied 32% (37% Nov '10)
  • Dissatisfied 30% (36% Nov '10)
  • Don't know 38% (26% Nov '10)

Same question on the efficacy the Snark, LOLITSP...
  • Satisfied 33% (39% Nov '10)
  • Dissatisfied 34% (24% Nov '10)
  • Don't know 33% (27% Nov '10)

Same question on Tavish Scott (who still resists a satisfying satirical alternative name...)
  • Satisfied 26% (31% Nov '10)
  • Dissatisfied 34% (35% Nov '10)
  • Don't know 40% (34% Nov '10)

Take a look at the Ipsos-MORI figures for yourself here.


  1. "Same question on Tavish Scott (who still resists a satisfying satirical alternative name...)"


  2. GrassyKnollington16 February 2011 at 12:56

    ...urge caution, possibility of rogue poll, wait and see, blip, need to see further polls to confirm, aw Christ is this real?, punch wall.

    unionist journo stream of consciousness.

  3. I like "Two Hoots" for Tavish.

  4. Sorry to correct, but SNP *not* a whisker ahead; it's a tie as the +/-3% margins of error overlap as explained in

    It's still a good result, mind.

  5. Conan,

    I'm afraid "Tallish" is insufficiently cutting or abusive for my tastes.

  6. GrassyKnollington,

    Some of the cautions about the polling are well taken, but I agree that is all too easy to have an uneven partisan skepticism about them, finding your methodological doubts much more worth the raising when your favoured party has not prospered in a given finding.

  7. Anonymous,

    I assume the preceding "I couldn't give..." is silent.

    "Two Hoots". Like Conan's proposal, not spicy enough for my own tastes. Which, in its way, tells us something significant about the dry as dust Mr Scott...

  8. A fair point that Martin.

    I suspect should have entitled this, "SNP triumphantly co-occupy margin of error. Thereby confirm me as a real loss to the tabloid headline coining business. I'll know better for next time around!

  9. Exactly my point Lallands.

    In the words of most Lahndan based
    detergent videodramas-

    "Ee's naht worf it innit"

    Either way...

  10. Sorry, can't offer anything wittier tonight on Nat Worfit, it's too late.

    But on LPW's main worry, I cannot understand this thing about women apparently not taking to Alex Salmond.

    I think he is absolutely fantastic!

    Takes responsibility.
    Well-informed, well-read, erudite.
    Manly and strong when necessary.
    Gentle and understated when desired.
    Doesn't disappear when he's caught out.
    And funny!

    He's the ideal man!!

    What more could a Scotswoman want??!

  11. GrassyKnollington17 February 2011 at 11:10

    re a satisfying satirical name for Tavish Scott, I was thinking Slavish Brit.

  12. Conan,

    Wasn't Nat Worfit one of the Wurzels?

  13. Quinie frae Angus,

    Actually, the data on women's views suggest that Salmond isn't the problem. Now I've got a moment or two to take in the detail of yesterday's poll, you can see (on p38 of the long .pdf) that more men are satisfied with the Maximum Eck 56% to women's 46%, but their dissatisfied figures are basically the same on 34% and 35% respectively.9% more women "don't know" (19% to 10% of men who don't know what to make of Salmond).

    For my part, I see this as an SNP problem with women voters, rather than a Salmond problem.

  14. GrassyKnollington17 February 2011 at 18:40

    Conservatavish Scott

  15. GrassyKnollington17 February 2011 at 18:41

    The Viking Clot

  16. GrassyKnollington17 February 2011 at 18:42

    Came down from Shetland

  17. GrassyKnollington17 February 2011 at 18:42

    And said not a lot.