In 1999, thirty five SNP MSPs were elected to Holyrood. 43% of our parliamentarians - fifteen - were women. 2003 was a tough year for the party. The Lib-Lab coalition retained office. The SNP - then reliant on list votes - made several constituency gains but got eaten alive by the surging Greens and SSP in the regions. The total parliamentary delegation slumped to twenty seven, with women losing out disproportionately. Just nine of the twenty seven SNP MSPs returning to Holyrood were women (33%).
2007's great leap forward under the restored Alex Salmond saw forty seven SNP MSPs returned - up twenty. But against that backdrop of success, once again the party had failed to balance up its gender representation. Only twelve of the forty-seven - 26% - were women. Remarkably, even the 2011 landslide did next to nothing to promote gender equality in the party delegation. Of the 69 MSPs returned, nineteen were women, catapulting the percentage up to a measly 28% of the total.
Against that stinking record of gender equality, I've been taking a particular interest over the last week in how the party's 2016 slate is shaping up. On the evidence of recent polling, we can expect the SNP to put in a sound constituency showing in 2016. As a consequence, who the party picks to contest Holyrood's seventy three constituencies is almost certain to have a profound impact on the gender balance of the group elected. In March this year, party conference finally backed the principle of imposing an all women shortlist where the incumbent MSP stands down.
Given the embarassment of the data presented above, and the party's sustained failure since 2003 to match its growth with growth in its female parliamentary delegation -- you can understand why. The evidence already underscores the importance, and the impact, of that decision. Cue some noises off - the usual Jurassic-era grumblings of frustrated male ambition. But even the general Election of 2015 furnished its own (rather modest) rebuke to Holyrood. Twenty of the fifty six SNP MPs are women - 36%. So how is 2016 looking?
I've put together this spreadsheet of who the party has nominated thus far. As you might expect, the imbalance of 2011 leaves behind it a legacy of inequality. Understandably, many of those returned to Holyrood have been keen to stay on. Constituency incumbents will make up 58% of those nominated to stand for the party next year.
Nine serving SNP MSPs are stepping down, including three women: Margaret Burgess, Fiona McLeod and presiding officer, Tricia Marwick. Two more - Nigel Don and Colin Keir - have taken daggers to the kidneys and been deselected by their local branches in Edinburgh and Angus. Six more still have to make their choice at time of writing: Dunfermline, Glasgow Pollok, Mid-Fife and Glenrothes, Motherwell and Wishaw, Orkney, and Rutherglen,
Nine serving SNP MSPs are stepping down, including three women: Margaret Burgess, Fiona McLeod and presiding officer, Tricia Marwick. Two more - Nigel Don and Colin Keir - have taken daggers to the kidneys and been deselected by their local branches in Edinburgh and Angus. Six more still have to make their choice at time of writing: Dunfermline, Glasgow Pollok, Mid-Fife and Glenrothes, Motherwell and Wishaw, Orkney, and Rutherglen,
Taking all of that into account, where are we? Seventy one of the seventy three constituency candidates have now been selected. Twenty eight are women. This represents 39% of constituencies declaring. The new candidate data tells a better story. In seats where the incumbent (a) stood down (b) has been deselected or (c) where the constituency is held by another political party, the current talley is seventeen women nominees out of the twenty nine constituencies which have declared thus far.
So what of the outstanding seven seats to be contested? I'd be surprised if the high-profile Humza Yousaf doesn't snatch the Glasgow Pollok nomination. Fife will return a female nominee. (UPDATE: both of these things have come to pass just this afternoon. I am the Brahan seer of Scottish blogging [sic]). Extrapolating on the basis of these figures, in 2016 the SNP will commend between twenty eight and thirty women to the people, representing 38% to 41% of its total constituency slate. This is real progress. It is to be commended. It underscores why the blunt instrument of all women shortlists was so necessary and so urgent.
But if every single one of these candidates was elected next May, even the best of these percentages still leaves us in a worse position than 1999. Political parties have only limited control over outcomes. The people decide who to endorse. You have surprise victories and unanticipated defeats. Under the vagaries of the d'Hondt list system, tactical voting is a mug's game. I'm sure the next Holyrood election will be no different.
But at least the SNP has finally ignored the disgruntled noises off from the unreconstructed - the self-pitying whimper of the stegosaurus, the girn of the disappointed iguanadon - and has begun to defossilise the party's gender representation. Not before time.