From summer drought to Autumn monsoon! After the full Scottish poll from Ipsos-MORI, which I took apart in a little bit of detail yesterday, the clouding over of the inscrutable firmament of public opinion has ended. With a splash to delight obsessives, the pitter-patter of opinion is pelting down on us again. (I'm conscious that for readers based in Scotland, they may struggle to connect this metaphor of drought to their experiences of the weather over the past few months, rejoicing in the ironic title of Summer. Think of it as moving from June smirr to September drizzle).
Take your pick which you find more interesting. Over today and yesterday, the attitude-tabulating folk at TNS-BMRB have published the detail of two of their polls, the first commissioned by the Scottish Government, the second by the Herald newspaper. While Scottish Ministers were particularly interested in attitudes towards sectarianism and its legal regulation, the newspaper wanted to know what folk make of the idea of Scottish independence. The independence poll sampled the opinions of 1,007 folk between the 24th and 31st of August, while the sectarianism poll questioned 1,028 people between the 27th of July and the 3rd of August. In the interests of giving both studies the space they deserve, I propose briefly to deconstruct the independence polling here, and return to the results of the sectarianism enquiry later in the week. The headline in the paper this morning proved suitably dramatic "Yes voters take lead in Scottish independence poll". As memory serves, the most recent poll on the question of Scottish independence was also conducted by TNS-BMRB and was published in June 2011. I looked at some of its below-the-topline detail here. In the interests of continuity, beside the results of today's poll, I'll add the change from the pollster's findings of June.
TNS-BMRB asked their respondents the following "The SNP have outlined their plans for a possible referendum on Scottish independence in the future. If such a referendum were to be held tomorrow, how would you vote?" Respondents could declare themselves for or agin the idea of the Scottish Government negotiating "a settlement with the Government of the UK so that Scotland becomes an independent state". For the indecisive, there was always "don't know". That produced the topline results, emphasised in the press:
All respondents...
- Agree ~ 39% (+2%)
- Disagree ~ 38% (−7%)
- Don't know ~ 23% (+5%)
What about gendered differences in attitudes towards independence? Overall, TNS-BMRB found...
Men...
- Agree ~ 43% (-)
- Disagree ~ 40% (−5%)
- Don't know ~ 17% (+4%)
Women...
- Agree ~ 36% (+4%)
- Disagree ~ 36% (−9%)
- Don't know ~ 28% (+5%)
While yesterday's Ipsos-MORI poll did have a breakdown of its findings by affluence (which I didn't discuss in the body of my post), it didn't use the social gradings you may be familiar with from the YouGov polls before the Holyrood election, which predicted the movement in working class voters away from Labour towards the SNP which seems to have been confirmed by the preliminary findings of the Scottish Election Survey 2011. TNS-BMRB use the same social grading we saw in the YouGov polling. If you need reminding, here's a brief account of the rationale for these rather unrefined social grades. On independence, how did it turn out?
AB...
- Agree ~ 37% (+8%)
- Disagree ~ 49% (−9%)
- Don't know ~ 14% (+1%)
C1...
- Agree ~ 37% (+3%)
- Disagree ~ 42% (−8%)
- Don't know ~ 21% (+5%)
C2...
- Agree ~ 38% (+1%)
- Disagree ~ 38% (−4%)
- Don't know ~ 24% (+3%)
DE...
- Agree ~ 44% (+1%)
- Disagree ~ 27% (−8%)
- Don't know ~ 29% (+7%)
Next, take age. The last independence poll indicated advancing hostility towards independence as you sidled through the generations, with the young folk being more up for Scotland assuming sovereignty, while the more ancient felt that we oughtn't. As before, the first number given is the result from today's poll, the figure in brackets being the change in the results since early June this year.
18-24...
- Agree ~ 40% (−11%)
- Disagree ~ 32% (−4%)
- Don't know ~ 27% (+14%)
25-34...
- Agree ~ 46% (+6%)
- Disagree ~ 23% (−13%)
- Don't know ~ 31% (+7%)
35-44...
- Agree ~ 47% (+9%)
- Disagree ~ 32% (−4%)
- Don't know ~ 21% (−6%)
45-54...
- Agree ~ 38% (−1%)
- Disagree ~ 39% (−8%)
- Don't know ~ 23% (+9%)
55-64...
- Agree ~ 37% (+6%)
- Disagree ~ 41% (−12%)
- Don't know ~ 22% (+6%)
65+ ...
- Agree ~ 31% (+3%)
- Disagree ~ 53% (−4%)
- Don't know ~ 16% (+1%)
Finally, on its last outing, the independent poll produced some surprising regional differences. In areas where the SNP prosper well such as the North East, independence was opposed. By contrast, in Glasgow - and the traditional fastnesses of Labour Unionists, only shaken in May, the favoured option was independence. It is worth bearing in mind that in each case, we are only talking about a hundred or so folk per folk. We should not, therefore, be hugely surprised if the results produced appear volatile and shifting in nature. A few months on, across the eight Holyrood regions, the pollsters found...
Highlands and Islands...
- Agree ~ 45% (+20%)
- Disagree ~ 33% (−14%)
- Don't know ~ 22% (−6%)
North East...
- Agree ~ 45% (+7%)
- Disagree ~ 28% (−17%)
- Don't know ~ 27% (+10%)
Mid-Scotland and Fife...
- Agree ~ 43% (+10%)
- Disagree ~ 28% (−13%)
- Don't know ~ 29% (+3%)
Lothian...
- Agree ~ 30% (−4%)
- Disagree ~ 46% (−1%)
- Don't know ~ 24% (+6%)
Central Scotland...
- Agree ~ 39% (-)
- Disagree ~ 38% (−7%)
- Don't know ~ 23% (+7%)
Glasgow...
- Agree ~ 41% (−5%)
- Disagree ~ 42% (+3%)
- Don't know ~ 17% (+2%)
West Scotland...
- Agree ~ 46% (+5%)
- Disagree ~ 40% (−4%)
- Don't know ~ 14% (−2%)
South Scotland...
- Agree ~ 30% (−4%)
- Disagree ~ 45% (−8%)
- Don't know ~ 25% (+12%)
The full TNS-BMRB tables.
LPW
ReplyDeleteAre the following interpretations correct.
Support for independence in the 18-24 age group actually dropped by 11% whilst in Glasgow,as well as South Scotland but, now in West Scotland, it also fell?
Weird?
not in West of Scotland
ReplyDeleteI need a correction button!
Lord Snooty,
ReplyDeleteThat is correct. In the 18-24 age group, support for independence decreased by 11%, from the 51% of June to this month's 40%.
Regionally, support for independence amongst respondents based in Glasgow, Lothian and South Scotland all decreased.
LPW
ReplyDeleteAny ideas?
In the main 3 Slab heartlands, where they actually (in general) moved towards the SNP in May, a significant number have jumped ship.
If it were just one area it could have been written off as a statistical anomaly but three????
I am puzzled.
Why the confusion?
ReplyDeleteDon't assume that a vote for the SNP means support for independence.
Lord Snooty,
ReplyDeleteI'd approach these figures (and all other public independence polling, frankly) quite gingerly. On regional differences, if you look at the full figures, you'll see that the actual number of people questioned is small, over a hundred and less than two for each. For example, I don't think one can really make very much of the +20% for independence counted in the Highlands and Islands compared to the last poll on the topic. As with the election, I suspect the only folk with enough cash to burn on giant gauging of opinion will be the SNP, and obviously, they'll be keeping their internal findings to themselves.
I follow what you are saying and thus really should give the overall poll figure more credence than the sub sets.
ReplyDeleteMoreover, the method of the poll, telephone, buttonholing in the street etc. Even the time of day and place of the street venue would be significant.
I presume they may well reject some interviews for various reasons but, the drop in support wrt youth does intrigue me and I can find no general logic for it.