On more law-making and tax-taking powers...
Q1. "As you may know, the Scottish Government plans to hold a referendum on Scotland's constitutional future during the next Scottish Parliament. The referendum is likely to contain two separate questions. The first question will ask whether you agree or disagree with the proposal to extent the powers of the Scottish Parliament to include more laws and duties and all tax-raising powers, while Scotland remains part of the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with this proposal?"
The pollsters findings were as follows...
Total results ("maximum devolution")...
- Agree ~ 66%
- Disagree ~ 26%
- Undecided / Don't know ~ 8%
And in gendered profile...
Men ("maximum devolution")...
- Agree ~ 65%
- Disagree ~ 27%
- Undecided / Don't know ~ 8%
Women ("maximum devolution")...
- Agree ~ 67%
- Disagree ~ 26%
- Undecided / Don't know ~ 7%
By ancientness, on more devolution shy of independence...
18 - 24 ...
- Agree ~ 71%
- Disagree ~ 18%
- Undecided / Don't know ~ 12%
25 - 34...
- Agree ~ 69%
- Disagree ~ 22%
- Undecided / Don't know ~ 9%
35 - 54...
- Agree ~ 68%
- Disagree ~ 27%
- Undecided / Don't know ~ 6%
55+...
- Agree ~ 62%
- Disagree ~ 31%
- Undecided / Don't know ~ 8%
Ipsos-MORI also correlated attitudes towards this proposal with voting intentions in Westminster and Holyrood. You can look at the findings for all of the parties yourself on the second page of the full tables. In the context of Darth Murdo Fraser's proposals to transmogrify the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party into a new, rechristened and re-imagined entity, it is worth explicitly remarking on how Conservative-voting respondents feel about the prospect of increased devolution of powers from Westminster. Of the 118 Westminster-voting Tories interviewed by the pollsters, the majority were overwhelmingly negative about the prospect of enhanced devolution.
Tories on "maximum devolution" (by Westminster voting intentions)
- Agree ~ 34%
- Disagree ~ 60%
- Undecided / Don't know ~ 6%
On independence...
Q2. "The second question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to enable Scotland to become an independent country, separate from the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with this proposal?"
In contrast with the TNS-BMRB findings, disagreement with independence predominates in the topline by a substantial margin...
Total results (independence)...
- Agree ~ 35%
- Disagree ~ 58%
- Undecided / Don't know ~ 7%
It is often contended that one reason for the historical "gender gap" in SNP support (ostensibly eliminated in recent Holyrood elections, by the by) was feminine constitutional risk aversion. On this theory, women are more cautious than men about abstract constitutional designs, and as such, may be more reticent about independence - and thus, the party of independence, the SNP. If so, that sentiment isn't captured in this poll. Genderwise, on independence, respondents divided in the following ways...
Men...
- Agree ~ 35%
- Disagree ~ 58%
- Undecided / Don't know ~ 6%
Women...
- Agree ~ 34%
- Disagree ~ 57%
- Undecided / Don't know ~ 9%
And by croneliness...
18 - 24 ...
- Agree ~ 46%
- Disagree ~ 48%
- Undecided / Don't know ~ 6%
25 - 34...
- Agree ~ 34%
- Disagree ~ 57%
- Undecided / Don't know ~ 9%
35 - 54...
- Agree ~ 35%
- Disagree ~ 57%
- Undecided / Don't know ~ 8%
55+...
- Agree ~ 32%
- Disagree ~ 62%
- Undecided / Don't know ~ 7%
Respondents views on independence by the party they support is inevitably a curiosity. Most folk who voted SNP don't believe in independence, has been a stress-relieving sentiment regularly squeezed out since May's Holyrood election. If this poll is anything to go on (and I have a great degree of sympathy with anyone contending that polls on this issue should be approached very gingerly, and any conclusions drawn or suggest ought to be very cautiously treated), while a substantial number of SNP voters don't support independence, it may be precipitous to conclude that the majority only etched their crosses against Maximum Eck out of jaded disgust with the Labour Party.
SNP voters on independence (by Holyrood voting intentions)
- Agree ~ 56%
- Disagree ~ 35%
- Undecided / Don't know ~ 8%
Intention to vote?
Finally, a word on potential turnouts. We might expect (and hope for) a high level of public engagement with the independence debate, with mobilised and enthusiastic committed voters both for and agin. When asked about whether they would vote in a Westminster General Election, 61% said they were absolutely certain to do so, with 59% declaring resolutely committed intentions to vote in any Holyrood election. Across age groups, intensity of commitment to vote varies significantly, with only 36% of 18-24 year olds saying they were absolutely certain to vote for Westminster, compared to 70% of folk over 55s. While there is plenty of opportunity for face-saving fibbing here - some folk will be understandably keen not to own up to squandering their democratic rights, because watching Diagnosis Murder on the telly takes precedence over a short traipse to their polling station - I was curious how any independence vote might differ. While they can shrug about general politics, are folk quite so willing to do so over the future of their nation? It appears they are not. 68% of respondents said they were absolutely certain to vote in an immediate referendum - with 74% of men absolutely certain and 63% of women. While still increasing by around 10 percentage points across the board, younger folk were less firm declaring in their intentions to vote than their older fellow citizens. 49% of 18 - 24 year olds feel sure they'd participate in the referendum, increasing to 58% of 25 - 34 year olds, 71% of 35 - 54 and 76% of over 55s.
Full Ipsos-MORI tables.
Finally, a word on potential turnouts. We might expect (and hope for) a high level of public engagement with the independence debate, with mobilised and enthusiastic committed voters both for and agin. When asked about whether they would vote in a Westminster General Election, 61% said they were absolutely certain to do so, with 59% declaring resolutely committed intentions to vote in any Holyrood election. Across age groups, intensity of commitment to vote varies significantly, with only 36% of 18-24 year olds saying they were absolutely certain to vote for Westminster, compared to 70% of folk over 55s. While there is plenty of opportunity for face-saving fibbing here - some folk will be understandably keen not to own up to squandering their democratic rights, because watching Diagnosis Murder on the telly takes precedence over a short traipse to their polling station - I was curious how any independence vote might differ. While they can shrug about general politics, are folk quite so willing to do so over the future of their nation? It appears they are not. 68% of respondents said they were absolutely certain to vote in an immediate referendum - with 74% of men absolutely certain and 63% of women. While still increasing by around 10 percentage points across the board, younger folk were less firm declaring in their intentions to vote than their older fellow citizens. 49% of 18 - 24 year olds feel sure they'd participate in the referendum, increasing to 58% of 25 - 34 year olds, 71% of 35 - 54 and 76% of over 55s.
Full Ipsos-MORI tables.
Will Salmond hold a 'once in a generation' referendum if he knows the answer is going to be no?
ReplyDeletelatest poll show yes party for independence in the majority by 1% the only thing that will show if scots want to stay in the union is the referendum itself
ReplyDeleteWhy has no one else mentioned these statistics? Surely the MSM especially the Hootsmon and the EBC?
ReplyDeleteAnonymous 17:50,
ReplyDeleteCertainly, the sting of opinion polls on this topic (and the result they suggest if the poll was held tomorrow) must be factored into SNP (and broader nationalist strategy). It is a subject I've been meaning to write something on for a while - and hope to come to shortly.
7 September 2011 20:40
Fourfolksache,
ReplyDeleteI don't know about the BBC. Certainly, the numbers are available to everyone and their mother with access to the internet and a link to Ipsos-Mori's website. As for the papers, it is likely a paywall issue. My understanding is that this aspect of the poll was commissioned by the Times. Although I didn't take a copy today myself, I believe these findings are discussed therein.
Well I'm amazed. Surely these statistics as opposed to the TNS/BMRB findings would have been perfect headline material for the Naysayers?
ReplyDeleteAre they afraid about having to refer to the overwhelming 'yes' to the Independence Light result? Surely that's the only possible explanation?
Very strange
Is the government at Westminster showing any signs of offering "more laws and duties and all tax-raising powers" as an alternative to independence?
ReplyDeleteI am not an avid reader of Hansard, but from reading Jim Wallace's comments in the Scotland Bill debate in the Lords yesterday I certainly didn't get that impression. Nor did comments by Gauke and Moore earlier in the summer leave me thinking that massive devolution of tax powers were planned.
So, if "devomax" is not a realistic alternative to independence, what exactly is the point of asking people whether they like the idea? And doesn't doing so impact the result of the second question? My guesses would be "little" and "yes", but I could be mistaken.
If we had a two question referendum and full independence was rejected and Devomax endorsed I don't see how Westminster could ignore it? Although what legal option would be available in those circumstances I don't know?
ReplyDeleteRe the results the Peat Worrier alluded to I understand Newsnicht used the information last night??
Invaluable analysis LPW - the Scottish cyberbog would be a much less informed place without you.
ReplyDeleteIt's encouraging for independence because the SNP have not made anything but the most abstract argument yet for independence.
ReplyDeleteOnce Salmond and his team put the case for independence and furnish voters with clear alternatives then the result could just swing to a YES vote - albeit close.
In my view 50% + 1 vote = a mandate for independence.
Fourfolksache,
ReplyDeleteIf these figures were mentioned on Newsnicht, the citation was at most pretty brief and superficial. A poll's a poll, for sure, but if we are going to conduct the wretched things, it's beyond me why the press don't chip into the data just a little more, and report the (often interesting) findings beneath the topline.
Edwin,
I try to contribute to the rich aroma of our political fens! Glad you found it useful.
Stevie,
An interesting point, that. I imagine we'll start to see our thinking on independence and folk's attitudes to it take on more analytical dynamism shortly.