3 September 2011

That latest Ipsos-MORI Scottish poll...

Scotland's psephologists have been trimming down their tummies since May, fasting from the want of proper polling samples seeking some understanding of how our population's political feelings are tending. They need fast no longer. Yesterday, Ipsos-Mori published a 1,002 person poll conducted at the end of August, exploring voting intentions in Westminster and Holyrood constituencies and satisfaction with leaders. For a change, let's up-end things and begin with the personal ratings for the PM and the FM, before going on to briefly summarise the findings for the Scottish parliament and the House of Commons. To maintain the approach I've taken to past polls this year, I'll also disaggregate the findings by gender, for villainy's sake. Asked "are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as Prime Minister?

Quoth all respondents...
  • Satisfied ~ 30%
  • Dissatisfied ~ 61%
  • Don't know ~ 9%
Just the gentlemen...
  • Satisfied ~ 36%
  • Dissatisfied ~ 56%
  • Don't know ~ 8%
... and the ladies, who apparently take a much dimmer view of Mr Cameron:
  • Satisfied ~ 24%
  • Dissatisfied ~ 66%
  • Don't know ~ 10% 

Now, even the most inveterate optimist or bare-faced crook can hardly turn 60-70ish per cent disapproval into a triumphant accolade to Cameron's popularity north of the Tweed, but just to be ornery, it's surely of some interest that just under a third of respondents felt able to voice some sort of vague, positive sentiment about the Prime Minister's command of his brief. Remember that in the 2010 General Election, the Tories only elicited some 16.7% of votes cast, and would give their eye-teeth for anything approaching 30% support in Scotland. As an aside, it is sometimes stated that devolution has contributed (at least a smidgeon) to the detoxification of the Tories in Scotland. Ironically enough, their share of the vote in the 2011 Holyrood election was actually lower than they polled for Westminster in 2010 (13.9% in constituencies and 12.4% in the regions to the 16.7% attracted across Scotland in contests to send representatives to the House of Commons).  But I digress. Onto the pollster's next victim and universal sufferer, the Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg. Smashing popular, do you think? Famously well-received? Alas, the respondents proved equally unflattering across the piece...

For Cleggy, in total...
  • Satisfied ~ 26%
  • Dissatisfied ~ 62%
  • Don't know ~ 12%
... with the chaps saying...
  • Satisfied ~ 26%
  • Dissatisfied ~ 65%
  • Don't know ~ 9%
... and the lassies concluding:
  • Satisfied ~ 26%
  • Dissatisfied ~ 60%
  • Don't know ~ 14%

So much for the coalition bods. On the other side of the House of Commons, the gelatinous form of monkfish Miliband is hardly basking in the admiration of the Scottish people either. Asked the same question about how Ed is faring in opposition, they responded...

In total...
  • Satisfied ~ 35%
  • Dissatisfied ~ 49%
  • Don't know ~ 19%
While the menfolk felt...
  • Satisfied ~ 33%
  • Dissatisfied ~ 54%
  • Don't know ~ 13%
And, on the distaff side...
  • Satisfied ~ 37%
  • Dissatisfied ~ 44%
  • Don't know ~ 19%

Leaving the House of Commons, Ipsos-MORI also asked folk about their feelings on how the Maximum Eck has been faring as First Minister in Holyrood.  In rather stark contrast to the negativity apparently attaching to the UK political leaders, the balance on opinion on Alex Salmond is strikingly positive:

In total...
  • Satisfied ~ 62%
  • Dissatisfied ~ 28%
  • Don't know ~ 9%
Men...
  • Satisfied ~ 65%
  • Dissatisfied ~ 28%
  • Don't know ~ 7%
Women...
  • Satisfied ~ 60%
  • Dissatisfied ~ 29%
  • Don't know ~ 12%

In the interests of brevity, I'll draw a discreet veil over what people had to say about Willie Rennie - and crash on with the voting intention findings. Firstly, Westminster, counting the views of all respondents...

In Westminster constituencies (all)...
  • SNP 34%
  • Labour 27%
  • Conservative 10%
  • Liberal Democrat 5%
In Westminster constituencies (men)...
  • SNP 36%
  • Labour 25%
  • Conservative 12%
  • Liberal Democrat 5%
In Westminster constituencies (women)...
  • SNP 32%
  • Labour 29%
  • Conservative 9%
  • Liberal Democrat 4%

Meanwhile, amongst those respondents classified as "certain to vote"...

In Westminster constituencies (all certain to vote)...
  • SNP 42%
  • Labour 33%
  • Conservative 15%
  • Liberal Democrat 6%
In Westminster constituencies (all men certain to vote)...
  • SNP 45%
  • Labour 28%
  • Conservative 17%
  • Liberal Democrat 6%
In Westminster constituencies (all women certain to vote)...
  • SNP 39%
  • Labour 28%
  • Conservative 13%
  • Liberal Democrat 6%

And what of Holyrood? Following the same breakdown, respondents answered as follows:

In Holyrood constituencies (all)...
  • SNP 39%
  • Labour 24%
  • Conservative 9%
  • Liberal Democrat 6%
In Holyrood constituencies (men)...
  • SNP 41%
  • Labour 23%
  • Conservative 11%
  • Liberal Democrat 5% 
In Holyrood constituencies (women)...
  • SNP 37%
  • Labour 26%
  • Conservative 8%
  • Liberal Democrat 6%

And those identified as "certain to vote" in Scottish Parliament elections...

In Holyrood constituencies (all certain to vote)...
  • SNP 49%
  • Labour 28%
  • Conservative 13%
  • Liberal Democrat 7%
In Holyrood constituencies (men certain to vote)...
  • SNP 54%
  • Labour 23%
  • Conservative 13%
  • Liberal Democrat 6% 
In Holyrood constituencies (women certain to vote)...
  • SNP 45%
  • Labour 32%
  • Conservative 12%
  • Liberal Democrat 8%

Those Ipsos-MORI full tables.

4 comments :

  1. By way of comparison, the constituency figures for Dec 2007 (i.e. roughly this point into the last SNP govt) were:

    SNP 40 LAB 29 CON 12 LD 13 OTH 6

    (There was a Progressive Scottish Opinion poll in August of that year, but I suspect them to be of the reversed fag packet school of polling.)

    Now if you'll allow me a little moan about the polling companies and their paymasters....

    The interest for all the parties is the council elections next year, yet we've no polls specifically on that. Indeed, in the last 15 years I can't remember ever seeing a poll carried out asking folk how they'll vote for their council, as opposed to parliament(s).

    As I am all too painfully aware of at the moment, extrapolating between 'X' marks the spot and STV preferential elections is fishing in the dark and, given how important transfers are in the later rounds of STV elections, makes assessing how each party is likely to perform next year incredibly difficult.

    STV polling would also, handily, give a near-endless assortment of numbers for the anoraks/psephologists to play with. Which is surely the best reason of all for YouGov/MORI/ICM et al to fill a gap in the market.

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  2. So men are more likely to be satisfied with Cameron than Miliband? *splutters into my morning coffee*

    Young Edward really needs to pull his socks up

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  3. Apart from the solid growing domination of the SNP (thessala, thessala)the only point of note is the continuing disparity between men and wimmen when voting for labour and the SNP.

    Can't all be single mothers dependent on the state as I have heard in the past, so there is an issue that is long overdue to be addressed.

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  4. Baron Sarwar

    Greatly appreciate yon data. While it is reasonably respectable to treat polls like straw on the wind, it's always curious to look back in time and see where stood Scotland then. True enough on councils. Insofar as national trends impact on these things, you may be interested in the regional breakdowns further on in that Ipsos-MORI report I link to. Obviously, they don't neatly follow council boundaries, but may be indicative.

    Jim,

    A funny thing, that. Even with Labour doing very poorly in the poll, it seems Mr Miliband hasn't inherited his predecessor's bewildering capacity, despite it all, to retain the good esteem of many of the Scottish electorate.

    Tony,

    It'll be interesting to see how the next half decade of Scottish politics goes. Things obviously have a significant capacity to change, but at the moment, Labour are looking calamitous, not comfortable challengers for the Scottish Government. An astonishing reversal, from their many years of comfort.

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