YouGov: that eve of election poll...

Oops. I gormlessly billed last Sunday's YouGov poll as the final opinion-measure of the election season, before today's Holyrood election day. Not so. YouGov released another sneaky 1,484 soul poll yesterday, conducting the fieldwork between the 2nd and 4th of May.  Since I gather the actual election results will be delayed into the watches of the night, I expect twitching obsessives will be wanting the nourishment of information and data, if only to feed speculation and anticipation about what shall transpire in the final analysis.  In each case, I've pulled out the voting intention percentages by gender and on social grading. In each case, four percentages are given. The first number is yesterday's polling number, while the subsequent figures given are the percentages recorded by YouGov in its three previous Holyrood polls, published on the 1st of May, 24th of April - and finally the earliest poll I looked at in detail - from the 18th of April. So, without further ado...

Constituency voting intentions (total) 4th May (1st, 24th, 18th)

• SNP ~ 42% (42%, 45%, 40%)
• Labour ~ 35% (34%, 32%, 37%)
• Tory ~ 11% (12%, 10%, 10%)
• Liberal ~ 8% (7%, 8%, 8%)
• Don't know ~ 6% (7%, 9%, 9%)

In gendered terms, the SNP continues to dominate the male constituency vote. Holding steady in the last days of the election, the Nationalists remains some 9 points ahead of Labour, who have seem to have staged a slight masculine recovery, albeit still leaving them down on the level of support from men achieved in the middle of April.

Constituency voting intentions (men)

• SNP ~ 44% (44%, 47%, 41%)
• Labour ~ 35% (31%, 32%, 39%)
• Tory ~ 11% (12%, 11%, 10%)
• Liberal ~ 7% (8%, 7%, 6%)
• Don't know ~ 5% (5%, 6%, 7%)

Meanwhile, the SNP also continues to lead amongst women, albeit by a slimmer margin...

Constituency voting intentions (women)

• SNP ~ 39% (41%, 43%, 39%)
• Labour ~ 35% (38%, 33%, 36%)
• Tory ~ 12% (12%, 10%, 12%)
• Liberal ~ 8% (5%, 9%, 9%)
• Don't know ~ 8% (10%, 11%, 10%)

And yesterday's regional list votes results...

Regional voting intentions (total)

• SNP ~ 35% (35%, 39%, 35%)
• Labour ~ 32% (33%, 29%, 33%)
• Tory ~ 13% (12%, 12%, 12%)
• Green ~ 6% (7%, 7%, 7%)
• Liberals ~ 7% (6%, 7%, 6%)
• SSP ~ 3% (3%, 2%, 3%)
• Solidarity ~ 0% (0%, 0%, 1%)
• Don't know ~ 6% (8%, 8%, 9%)

And breaking down those regional totals along gendered lines...

Regional voting intentions (men)

• SNP ~ 36% (35%, 40%, 36%)
• Labour ~ 31% (30%, 28%, 34%)
• Tory ~ 13% (13%, 11%, 12%)
• Green~ 7% (9%, 9%, 6%)
• Liberal ~ 6% (7%, 6%, 6%)
• SSP ~ 4% (3%, 3%, 3%)
• Solidarity ~ 0% (0%, 1%, 1%)
• Don't know ~ 4% (4%, 5%, 7%)

While the womenfolk...

Regional voting intentions (women)

• SNP ~ 34% (36%, 37%, 33%)
• Labour ~ 32% (35%, 31%, 33%)
• Tory ~ 14% (12%, 12%, 13%)
• Green ~ 6% (6%, 6%, 6%)
• Liberals ~ 8% (5%, 8%, 9%)
• SSP ~ 3% (3%, 2%, 2%)
• Solidarity ~ 1% (0%, 0%, 0%)
• Don't know ~ 8% (11%, 11%, 11%)

And in terms of bourgeois Scotland? You may recall that on the 18th of April, the SNP was  four points behind Labour amongst ABC1 voters. In a reversal of fortunes, YouGov suggests that the SNP enjoy an eleven point lead over Labour amongst middle class voters as we go to the polls. 

Constituency voting intentions (ABC1)

• SNP ~ 41% (39%, 40%, 34%)
  
• Labour ~ 30% (33%, 31%, 38%)
  
• Tory ~ 14% (17%, 14%, 14%)
  
• Liberal ~ 5% (7%, 10%, 11%)
  
• Don't know ~ 5% (7%, 10%, 10%)

The regional voting patterns tell a similar story, the SNP reversing the results in April's polling, going from three points behind Labour amongst ABC1 voters to eight points ahead of them...

Regional voting intentions (ABC1)

• SNP ~ 33% (31%, 35%, 29%)
• Labour ~ 25% (31%, 27%, 32%)
• Tory ~ 17% (16%, 15%, 17%)
• Liberal ~ 9% (8%, 9%, 10%)
• Green ~ 8% (8%, 9%, 10%)
• SSP ~ 4% (2%, 2%, 2%)
• Solidarity ~ 0% (0%, 0%, 0%)
• Don't know ~ 6% (8%, 9%, 11%)

One neglected story of this campaign, it seems to me, has been C2DE voters' shifting attitudes. Easter Sunday suggested the SNP were some fifteen points ahead of Labour amongst working class Scots. That lead diminished to ten points in last Sunday's poll, and is trimmed again to only four points yesterday.

Constituency voting intentions (C2DE)

• SNP ~ 43% (46%, 49%, 41%)
  
• Labour ~ 39% (36%, 34%, 37%)
  
• Tory ~ 9% (7%, 7%, 8%)
  
• Liberal ~ 5% (6%, 6%, 5%)
  
• Don't know ~ 7% (8%, 9%, 8%)

Strikingly, in the region, Labour appear to have overhauled the Nationalists amongst C2DE voters after three weeks of lagging behind, if only by a single percentage point (and thus well within the margin of error). 

Regional voting intentions (C2DE)

• Labour ~ 37% (34%, 32%, 34%)
• SNP ~ 36% (40%, 42%, 40%)
• Tory ~ 10% (8%, 9%, 8%)
• Green ~ 5% (7%, 6%, 6%)
• Liberals ~ 5% (4%, 6%, 5%)
• SSP ~ 3% (3%, 2%, 3%)
• Solidarity ~ 1% (0%, 1%, 1%)
• Don't know ~ 7% (8%, 8%, 8%)

And there you have it. Lay in a decent bottle of claret, pluck off your periwig, and recline before the telly as the light fades and the stars come out. Tomorrow (with any luck) we should have a decent idea of the complexion of the fourth Scottish Parliament. Will the Maximum Eck has been victorious - or stunningly trounched? Will the dead weight of the Gray albatross bury Labour in the sand, or astound Scotland by taking flight - and carry the hapless mariner to an unexpected triumph? If he does fail, who might replace him? Will new Green shoots spring up, or will the blackened earth prove infertile, and the suffering stalk snap right through? Will the Liberal Democrats sheepish election strategies have staved off disaster, their vote holding up despite all prophecy that they are doomed -  or shall they be summarily consigned to condign oblivion by an outraged electorate? What of George Galloway in Glasgow? Will he get a look in, or the bum's rush? Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow, creeps in this petty pace...

The full YouGov tables 4th of May poll.