Another YouGov poll for Easter Sunday...

No doubt it is mildly impious to devote oneself to the worldliness of politicking on Easter Sunday, but I trust my persistent interest in the profane things of the ballot will be forgiven me. This morning, the Scotland on Sunday published a further opinion Holyrood poll, again conducted by YouGov. It is very much a case of pre-election famine to polling feast. Although I don't intend to discuss it in any substantial analytical way, you can examine the (very) full tables of the  latest Ipsos-MORI poll for yourself here. Since I looked in detail at last week's YouGov poll for the Scotland on Sunday, it seems reasonable to stick with the same pollster and see what, if anything, has transpired over the past week.

We can be sure that these findings will be being dissected in some detail in the papers, on the blogs and in campaign rooms across the country. It does strike me, however, that by skimming over the surface of things and eyeing only the total figures, we might be missing out on some of the fascinating undercurrents suggested by the more detailed data. One of the highlights of last week's YouGov poll, for those interested in such things, were the social gradings. Based on the occupations of respondents, these social grades distinguish between your ABC1s - upper, middle and lower middle classes - and C2DEs - the skilled working class, the working class, and those living at the lowest levels of subsistence.  Ironically, and I think totally neglected in the press, last week's YouGov poll suggested that "the People's Party" were lagging 7 points behind the SNP amongst C2DE voters on the constituency ballot and 6 points on the regional vote. By contrast, Labour continued to lead amongst the middle classes, by 3% and 4% respectively. I produced the data without much comment, however, the irony of this result should be irresistible. When it was first released in early March, I sketched the lineaments of the Labour-voting archetype so neatly depicted and skewered in the SNP's party political broadcast, What has the Scottish Government ever done for us?

"His vague Old left pretensions, lapsed half-Marxism and suspicions of Scottish nationalism are married to a comfortable bourgeois lifestyle, fine personal conscience and a deep well of contempt. There is a reasonable chance that he is a secondary school teacher, a social worker or a middle-to-upper range council employee. He affects a cynical swagger and always votes Labour."

Looking at the social grading in last week's YouGov poll certainly summoned this character back to mind. As ever, I'm also interested to see what has become of the Nationalist gender gap. Closing, yawning, gaping? YouGov have made the fuller tables underpinning today's poll available much more speedily than is typical. Interested though I am in overall results and their persistent trends, it is worth rummaging through the data a little more thoroughly. 1,332 Scottish adults were questioned between the 19th and 21st of April.  The following are the figures adjusted by YouGov for likeliness to vote. The (+/-) given in brackets refers to the pollster's findings of last week...

Constituency voting intentions (total)

• SNP ~ 45% (+5)
• Labour ~ 32% (-5)
• Tory ~ 10% (-1)
• Liberal ~ 8% (-)
• Other ~ 4% (-)
• Don't know ~ 9% (-)

And in gendered terms? The gentlemen replied...

Constituency voting intentions (men)

• SNP ~ 47% (+6)
• Labour ~ 32% (-7)
• Tory ~ 11% (+1)
• Liberal ~ 7% (+1)
• Other ~ 4% (-)
• Don't know ~ 6% (-1)

Meanwhile, the ladies answered...

Constituency voting intentions (women)

• SNP ~ 43% (+4)
• Labour ~ 33% (-3)
• Tory ~ 10% (-2)
• Liberal ~ 9% (-)
• Other ~ 5% (-)
• Don't know ~ 11% (+1)

After deliberating over their regional list votes...

Regional voting intentions (total)

• SNP ~ 39% (+4)
• Labour ~ 29% (-4)
• Tory ~ 12% (-)
• Liberal ~ 7% (-)
• Green ~ 7% (+1)
• SSP ~ 2% (-1)
• Solidarity ~ 0% (-1)
• Don't know ~ 8% (-1)

And breaking down those regional totals along gendered lines...

Regional voting intentions (men)

• SNP ~ 40% (+4)
• Labour ~ 28% (-6)
• Tory ~ 11% (-1)
• Green~ 9% (+3)
• Liberal ~ 6% (-)
• SSP ~ 3% (-)
• Solidarity ~ 1% (-)
• Don't know ~ 5% (-2)

While the womenfolk...

Regional voting intentions (women)

• SNP ~ 37% (+4)
• Labour ~ 31% (-2)
• Tory ~ 12% (-1)
• Liberal ~ 8% (-1)
• Green ~ 6% (-)
• SSP ~ 2% (-)
• Solidarity ~ 0% (-)
• Don't know ~ 11% (-)

And in terms of social-grading? Further movement? Indeed so. Evidence that Labour's defensive strategies are galvanising its working class base? Not at all. Contra last week's findings, Scottish bourgeois respondents now seem to favour the Nationalists, with Labour falling back...

Constituency voting intentions (ABC1)

• SNP ~ 40% (+6)
  
• Labour ~ 31% (-7)
  
• Tory ~ 14% (-)
  
• Liberal ~ 10% (-1)
  
• Don't know ~ 10% (+2)

And what of the C2DES? Perhaps most astonishingly of all, this week suggests that the Nationalists enjoy a 15% lead over Labour amongst working class voters on the constituency ballot, more than doubling the already surprising gap suggested last week. On the regional ballot, according to YouGov, the SNP are leading Labour amongst C2DEs by 10%...

Constituency voting intentions (C2DE)

• SNP ~ 49% (+5)
  
• Labour ~ 34% (-3)
  
• Tory ~ 7% (-1)
  
• Liberal ~ 6% (+1)
  
• Don't know ~ 9% (+1)

Regionally too, the Nationalists may be advancing on last week's findings, suggesting a potentially skeptical bourgeoisie, minded to favour Labour.

Regional voting intentions (ABC1)

• SNP ~ 35% (+6)
• Labour ~ 27% (-5)
• Tory ~ 15% (-2)
• Liberal ~ 9% (-1)
• Green ~ 9% (+2)
• SSP ~ 2% (-)
• Solidarity ~ 0% (-)
• Don't know ~ 9% (-2)

And last but not least, the declared regional voting intentions of Scottish working class voters...

Regional voting intentions (C2DE)

• SNP ~ 42% (+2)
• Labour ~ 32% (-2)
• Tory ~ 9% (+1)
• Liberal ~ 6% (+1)
• Green ~ 6% (-)
• SSP ~ 2% (-1)
• Solidarity ~ 1% (-)
• Don't know ~ 8% (-)

The full YouGov tables.