New Lockerbie case poll on US Senate games...

Seems Richard Baker has decidedly misjudged his electorate. You may recall the Swine Pursuivant's caterwauling on the radio, sternly demanding that Alex Salmond and Kenny MacAskill should schlep across the Atlantic to line dance before the US Senate, while the question of Jack Straw's attendance was "purely a matter for him". Such a flexible fellow he is. As you will all undoubtedly know, Senator Menendez et al's peremptory summons was timely and fatally rebuffed by the Scottish Government. My sense throughout has been that many Scots would not take kindly to being kicked around by canting scoundrel American politicians, whatever their views might be on the release of Megrahi itself. Recall, after all, Galloway's celebrated jaunt to Washington. The still-present twinge of disgust at the perceived pandering of British political figures to American interests. Remember, in short, Blair's bichon frise routine. That underdog mentality, itching to raise two fingers to startle the presumptuous and ignorant and high handed American hypocrite - that is a tale calculated to resonate with many Scots, tingled by the small but significant frisson of independent-mindedness and the spirited resistance to a stronger power. Menendez instead had to contend with silence. He was denied his judicial moment in the chair. In his panic, he burbled to himself, for company's sake, reduced to increasingly shrill accusation, grasping at the rags of decorum to cover his nakedness.  

On any reading, Eck's sharper epistle to Senator Menendez was a excellent riposte, serving to concentrate these themes. And with tightrope poise, it balanced twin burdens. While the language of the text was sufficiently polite not to cause an risky hoohaa, the inflammatory sentences were pointedly crafted and by consequence, it was these that were covered in the media. Basically, as far as the Scottish electorate is concerned, he managed to wave an archer's salute at the American senators without causing the scandal which a more direct "awa' an' bile yer heid!" would undoubtedly have caused. Those were my suspicions and best guesses. This morning the SNP released some details of a poll exploring Scottish public opinion on precisely this question and I would suggest that the results overwhelming bear out that analysis. The poll's total sample size was 1,212 Scottish adults and the fieldwork was undertaken between 17th - 18th August 2010.  Here are the questions asked, with respondents' percentages for each response:

Question (1) A US senate committee invited representatives of the Scottish government to appear before their committee to explain their decision. The Scottish government declined to attend, on the grounds that they are accountable to the Scottish Parliament, not to US politicians. Do you agree or disagree with Scottish Government’s decision not to attend?

 

1. Agree – they were right not to attend 72%
2. Disagree – they should have attended 20% 
3. Don’t Know 7%

 

Question (2) Some US Senators have argued that commercial lobbying of the UK Government by BP played a role in the release of Al-Megrahi, while the Scottish Government insists that the Scottish Government was not lobbied by BP and that the Scottish Justice Secretary’s decision to grant compassionate release to Al-Megrahi was based solely on the rules and regulations of Scots Law. Regardless of your own view on the decision, which of the following best reflects your view?

 

1. The US Senators are correct – BP Lobbying played a part in the release of Al-Megrahi ~ 14%
2. The Scottish Government is correct – Al Megrahi was released solely in line with Scotland Law ~ 54%
3. Neither ~ 11%
4. Don’t Know ~ 21%

Question (3) Al-Megrahi was convicted in a Scottish Court and served his prison sentence in Scotland. Regardless of whether you think Al-Megrahi should or should not have been released, who do you think should have made the decision on whether or not to release him?
 

1. The Scottish Justice Secretary ~ 76%
2. A Minister in the UK Government ~ 13%
3. Don’t Know ~11%

Just a few points I want to emphasise. Needless to say, 72% to 20% supporting the Scottish Government's non-attendance is a mighty difference to make the politick would-be positioning of Richard Baker and the Scottish Labour Party look ill-judged to say the least. Also notice the difference in don't knows answers to question (1) and (2). 21% suggested they could not be certain about what the decision to release Megrahi was premised on, whether BP was involved or only the processes of Scots Law were observed. However, only 7% of don't knows were undecided when it came to whether a Scottish Government delegation should have headed to Washington. We can't tell from these figures how far the responses to the two questions correlate. For example, it is possible albeit unlikely that someone suspecting BP involvement might nevertheless not much care for American institutions and thus support non-attendance. Equally, however, it seems more probable that the 14% difference represents just how potent is that strand of opinion I attempted to describe at the outset. 

One final thought. Although I've no spy in the heart of the party's hierarchy, I would be exceedingly surprised if the SNP took this opportunity only to ask these three questions and weren't canvassing more generally on what the Scottish public make of Megrahi's release one year on, in the context of his ongoing life, if not vitality. Perhaps they did not do so on this occasion and indeed only posed these three enquiries, however, it beggars belief that no attempts are being made to gauge any "Lockerbie case" effect on 2011's Holyrood elections, however macabre that becomes. If so, I'd be exceedingly curious to know if such polling has been commissioned and what information the party has refrained from releasing into the public domain thus far.

Update

Coincidentally enough, it turns out that one of the respondents involved in this YouGov poll was Nairn and Spain-based blogger and twitterer Bill Cameron. He has exceedingly helpfully been able to confirm that he was indeed asked several additional questions in the course of the poll, including the crucial questions about respondents' attitudes to Megrahi's release. That answers my if question.  The SNP is clearly taking a close look at public opinion here. So what might the rest of the answers have been? Unlike the figures disclosed above, no doubt the responses to the central questions are somewhat more nuanced, breaking down along a number of lines and may take some time to digest. It may be that the other responses will never see the light of day. Either way, I'm sure they're giving someone a fascinating insight into this knotty ethical and political conundrum. .