Analysis: latest Holyrood polls...

I'm toddling along at a tortoise's pace here. Those with an interest in such things will no doubt already have outpaced me with their leporine fleetness and seen the topline results of YouGov and Ipsos-MORI's respective polls on Scottish voting intentions. Notably, these figures seem promising for the Nationalists. Moreover, in the detailed YouGov sheet, you can also see how that 72% supporting the Scottish Government's refusal to testify before the American Senate on Megrahi's release broke down. Just to refresh your memory, here were the voting intention keynotes. From YouGov:

1. Labour ~ 36%
2. SNP ~ 35%
3. Conservative ~ 14%
4. Liberal Democrat ~ 12%
5. Others ~ 3%

And from Ipsos-MORI, the responses for Holyrood constituency voting among those certain to vote:

1. Labour ~ 37%
2. SNP ~ 34%
3. Liberal Democrat ~ 13%
4. Conservative ~ 11%
5. Greens ~ 2%
6. Others ~ 2%

And the list votes, again amongst those certain to vote:

1. Labour ~ 38%
2. SNP ~ 29%
3. Conservatives ~ 12%
4. Liberal Democrats ~ 12%
5. Greens ~ 5%
6. Others ~ 4%

So much, so well covered. However, unlike the more general Ipsos-MORI results, I notice that more detailed results from the YouGov poll, commissioned by the SNP, have now been published. I just wanted to pluck out a few of those demographic details and bring them to your attention. 

Gender...

Firstly, there is little sign of the gender gap in SNP support which we've been discussing. Indeed, while leading Labour is supported by 39% of men and 33% of women, the SNP is polling at 36% and 35% respectively. Namely, despite their overall lead, this poll suggests that the SNP are now (just) leading Labour among women voters. 

Age...

Turning to age, the SNP is leading among the youngest cohort (aged 18 - 29), with 33% support compared to Labour's 31%. Interestingly, it is among these young things that the Liberal Democrat support sits at its most healthy heights, with 19% of them being keen Libs. The next oldest cohort (30 - 39 year olds) are clearly the staunchest, pro-Labour category. A very large 45% of them declare for Labour, compared to only 23% for the Nationalists, some 10% lower than our overall average, with the remaining 12% preferring Conservatives, 18% Liberal democrat. Amongst 40 - 59 year olds, the Nationalist support blossoms, albeit the tallest shoots don't quite match the height of the red flowering in support in the previous age category, with the SNP on 42%, Labour on 35%, Conservative 12%, Liberal Democrats shrinking to a cheeky wee 7%. Curiously, the voting preferences of those aged over 60 most resembles the overall average, albeit with a slight but noticeable increase in the Conservative vote and a switch in first and second positions. Here the SNP have a tiny 1% margin over Labour, 36% and 35% respectively, with the Tories taking 17%, the Liberals on 9%. 

Social Grades...

YouGov use the NRS social grade scale, from A - E. In this poll, results are analysed in two groups, the A-C1s and the C2s-Es. The first consists of the upper, middle and lower middle classes. Amongst this group, YouGov found as follows, ordered by bigness of their support:

1. SNP ~ 35%
2. Labour ~ 32%
3. Conservative ~ 18%
4. Liberal ~ 13%
5. Other ~ 3%

The second category, C2 - E, consists of the skilled working class, the working class and those categorised as living at the lowest levels of subsistence.Here were their views, ordered on the same principle:

1. Labour ~ 40%
2. SNP ~ 36%
3. Conservative ~ 9%
4. Liberal Democrat ~ 9%
5. Other ~ 4%

Interestingly, I've been hearing unconfirmed rumours about the results of the party's polling on what the lieges make of Alex Salmond. Apparently to the Maximum Eck's mild distress, this exercise discovered that he was particularly popular amongst the "lower" social grade categories, while the bourgeois responded rather less certainly and less warmly to the man. Make of that what you will.