Analysis: second poll on Megrahi release...

Yesterday, I suggested that detailed polling data might afford some fascinating insights into the knotty ethical and political conundrum of Megrahi's release and the Scottish public's current attitudes towards it. And hey presto! Today, Ipsos MORI published their poll, undertaken on STV's penny and conducted with over the telephone  with 1,013 respondents from the 16th to the 19th of this month.

The keynotes are pretty plain, with 36% of people continuing to agree with the release, to 54% who now express disagreement with it. Interestingly, in the light of recent discussions on this blog, there seems to be a significant gender differential in opinion ("significant" here, used in its ordinary sense, denoting no added statistical calculation on my part). 42% of men expressed support, while 50% are opposed. Only 30% of female respondents were supportive, with 57% offering critical opinions.  For those who are interested, it is worth delving into the detailed computer tables. While I'd echo Jeff's sentiments that these numbers tell us relatively little about how support or opposition to the release will inform voting in the Holyrood 2011 elections, intensity of opinion might be an important indicator. Here is the breakdown, again along gendered lines:

Question: LOCKERBIE. Moving on, on Friday, it will be one year since the Scottish Justice Secretary, Kenny MacAskill, announced the release of the man convicted of the 1988 bombing of the Pan Am aeroplane over Lockerbie in which 270 people died. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the decision to release him? Do you..?

1. Strongly agree ~ Total 20%; Men 25%;  Women 16%
2. Tend to agree ~ Total 15%; Men 17%; Women 14%
3. Neither agree nor disagree ~ Total 8%; Men 6%; Women 9%
4. Tend to disagree ~ Total 9%; Men 8%; Women 10%
5. Strongly disagree ~ Total 45%; Men 42%; Women 47% 
6. Don't know ~ Total 3%; Men 1%; Women 4%

Evidence, one might think, that the belief that women are the merciful sex is rather misplaced. Once again, I must say I'm surprised at the gendered balance of opinion that this poll seems to capture. Age also presents another interesting picture. The youngest group of respondents seems to have particularly negative attitudes towards the release. Compare 18 - 24 year olds expressed views with the total average:

1. Strongly agree ~ Total 20%; 18 - 24 year olds 5%
2. Tend to agree ~ Total 15%; 18 - 24 year olds 13%
3. Neither agree nor disagree ~ Total 8%; 18 - 24 year olds 11%
4. Tend to disagree ~ Total 9%; 18 - 24 year olds 11%
5. Strongly disagree ~ Total 45%; 18 - 24 year olds 58%
6. Don't know ~ Total 3%; 18 - 24 year olds 2%

Strong agreement with the release makes a sudden leap in the next age category, from the doldrums of 5% to 19% of 25 - 34 year olds, 22% of 35 - 54 year olds and 24% of over 55s respectively. Strong disagreement pitches by over 10% from the its 58% high among the youngest group to 37%, raising again to 46% among 35 - 54 year olds, dwindling somewhat to 42 % among the eldest cohort. On the last page of the tables, support is correlated against satisfaction and dissatisfaction with the Prime Minister and First Minister respectively. I'm no master statistician, but what follows seems to be the percentage of the two politicians satisfied/dissatisfies, according to the poll. I assume there are several "can't decides" left unrecorded in the middle of both extremes of opinion, so the totals combine properly.

1. David Cameron ~ Weighted satisfied ~ 336/1013 (33%)
2. Alex Salmond ~ Weighted satisfied ~ 532/1013 (53%)
3. David Cameron ~ Weighted dissatisfied ~ 482 /1013 (48%)
4. Alex Salmond ~ Weighted dissatisfied ~ 378/1013 (37%)

There is undoubtedly much more information which could be extracted from this data if one took more time over it. Do look for yourself here. Mine is very much a baldy-man's toothcomb sweep, highlighting the points which immediately occurred to me.