21 February 2011

Gender & the latest Ipsos-Mori poll...

Maximum Eck at surf, courtesy of the Scottish Government
A certain opinionated Burd has an excellent post, arguing that "Holyrood won't be over until the ladies sing". Regular readers will know that I have an abiding interest in the role of women in Scottish politics and with May's approaching election, a heightened curiosity about the voting intentions and behaviour of my female fellow Scots. Although  the effectiveness of political strategy may be rather like  the riddle of silence - name me and you shall break me -  I'd submit that there are clear signs that SNP are showing a heightened interest in the gendered dimension of their communications and are seizing opportunities to emphasise this. Of late we have heard encouraging noises from Alex Salmond about Scotia's damsels, whether that involved web-chatting with Mumsnet, emphasising the importance of his female relationships on Desert Island Discs, or seizing the opportunity of Liz Lochhead "Makaration" to make some positive observations about the too often neglected literary voices of Scotland's women. Clearly, such such crotchets do not a melody make, but in their small way, they contribute to the background atmosphere in a way that is not unimportant or incidental. While Kate focussed on the SNP/Labour factor, I thought it might be useful just to tease out in raw numerical terms what the latest Ipsos-MORI poll has to say about the broader gendered differences in responses recorded. I covered the poll's more widely discussed topline figures in a post last week.

On first constituency intentions, amongst those certain to vote...

  • SNP ~ Men 32% Women 24%
  • Labour ~ Men 26% Women 29%
  • Tory ~ Men 11% Women 7%
  • Liberal Democrats ~ Men 5% Women 9%

On first constituency intentions, amongst all respondents...

  • SNP ~ Men 42% Women 33%
  • Labour ~ Men 32% Women 40%
  • Tory ~ Men 15% Women 11%
  • Liberal Democrats ~ Men 7% Women 12%

On second list voting intentions, amongst those certain to vote...

  • SNP ~ Men 39% Women 31%
  • Labour ~ Men 27% Women 39%
  • Tory ~ Men 16% Women 10%
  • Liberal Democrats ~ Male 9% Women 11%
  • Greens ~ Male 5% Women 7%

On second list voting intentions, amongst all respondents...

  • SNP ~ Men 37% Women 31%
  • Labour ~ Men 31% Women 38%
  • Tory ~ Men 14% Women 12%
  • Liberal Democrats ~ Male 9% Women 11%
  • Greens ~ Male 4% Women 6%

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Alex Salmond is doing his job as First Minister of Scotland?

  • Satisfied ~ Men 56% Women 46%
  • Dissatisfied ~ Men 34% Women 35%
  • Don't know ~ Men 10% Women 19%

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Iain Gray is doing his job?

  • Satisfied ~ Men 32% Women 34%
  • Dissatisfied ~ Men 41% Women 28%
  • Don't know ~ Men 27% Women 38%

On the issues, what is the "most important issue facing Scotland today?"

  • Economy/economic situation/credit crisis/crunch ~ Men 29% Women 21%
  • Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry ~ Men 25% Women 22%
  • Education/Schools ~ Men 6% Women 10%
  • Scottish independence/constitution/devolution ~ Men 8% Women 5%
  • NHS ~ Men 3% Women 6%
  • Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism/anti-social (yob) behaviour ~ Men 2% Women 4%
  • Public spending cuts ~ Men 2% Women 4%
  • And so on...

Combined results of most important issues and other "important issues facing Scotland today?"

  • Economy/economic situation/credit crisis/crunch ~ Men 42% Women 30%
  • Education/Schools ~ Men 25% Women 35%
  • Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry ~ Men 31% Women 26%
  • NHS ~ Men 16% Women 26%
  • Public spending cuts ~ Men 17% Women 20%
  • Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism/anti-social (yob) behaviour ~ Men 12% Women 14%
  • Scottish independence/constitution/devolution ~ Men 11% Women 6%
  • Environment/climate change/global warming/pollution ~ Men 5% Women 6%
  • Housing ~ Men 3% Women 6%
  • And so on ...

20 February 2011

Aitken indicted in Holyrood...

Oh crumbs, chief. The Sunday Herald reports this morning that Glasgow Green MSP, Patrick Harvie, will be tabling a motion when Holyrood reconvenes tomorrow, calling for Bill Aitken to resign as convenor of the parliament's Justice Committee. Harvie's draft text reads as follows:

Unacceptable comments by the Convenor of Justice Committee -

That the Parliament condemns the attitude shown by Bill Aitken MSP on the subject of rape during a recent interview with the Sunday Herald newspaper; considers that Mr Aitken’s comments during this interview betray a disregard for the seriousness of rape, and imply support for the view that a victim can be held responsible for this most vicious crime; believes that this view, though disturbingly widespread, is rooted in misogyny and ignorance; considers these comments to be incompatible with the role of Justice Committee Convenor; believes that the Parliament’s credibility to deal proactively with issues of sexual violence would be undermined if the proximity of dissolution resulted in failure to hold Mr Aitken to account for these odious and shocking comments; and calls for Mr Aitken’s immediate resignation.

I blogged about Aitken's appalling remarks about the Glasgow City Centre serious sexual assault earlier in the week, echoing calls made by others for Baillie Bill to step down.  In the alternative, if he would not relinquish the chair, I argued that his fellow parliamentarians should be called upon to pry the committee convenorship from him. My guess is that this development leaves the Tory Penfold impressionist thoroughly unstuck.  Aitken's ousting is richly merited. On the off chance that anyone has not read Aitken's immediate response to the gang rape when interviewed by a Sunday Herald journalist, the transcript of the impugned conversation can be read at the New Statesman. That being forced from the office would result in an ignominious end to his parliamentary career should not dissuade our MSPs from being active in its prosecution. The comments were grossly unacceptable and it would be an extraordinary situation if the imminent end of the parliamentary term and Aitken's departure from Holyrood was taken to justify inaction against him. Helpfully, the Herald doesn't appear to be carrying the relevant article online.  Being furth of Scotland myself and insufficiently keen to maintain a subscription, no paper copy of the Sunday Herald was to hand. Owing to the kindly intercession of Green presser and Better Nation blogger James Mackenzie, however, a snapshot of the article can be read below.


19 February 2011

Judicial quotation of the week...

Eccentric litigants seem to have been keeping their futile but entertaining petitions from the doors of Scotland's appeal courts of late. The dearth may now be lifting. Idly fumbling through the electronic annals of Parliament House, the humble case of Daniel Cox v. Procurator Fiscal, Aberdeen caught my eye. The details themselves are perfectly quotidian. Mr Cox was convicted of driving at 49 miles an hour in 30 mile per hour zone by the Aberdeen Justices of the Peace Court. He received three pips on his driving licence and was fined £250. Clearly not a fellow to pinch his nose and swallow his legal medicine, Cox appealed his conviction on the basis that old peculiar of Scottish evidentiary jurisprudence, the corroboration rule.

Contended Cox, the accuracy of the Unipar SL 700 laser speed detection device had to be spoken to by two independent sources of evidence. Here is where things got trickier. The Procurator Fiscal relied on the evidence of two police officers who had carried out certain checks on the instrument before mounting up and scourging the Granite City for Mr Toad impressionists. They reassured themselves that the laser alignment was functioning properly by opening fire on a blameless nearby lamp-post.  The range, they tested by employing the instrument to measure between two settled pre-measured points in the police garage, thirty metres apart, Finding that the particular device was functioning properly, the polis thought nothing more of the matter. Cox had his doubt. How did they know that points A and B in the garage were 30 metres apart? Only one of the police officers had been involved in measuring the distance, but that was some time earlier. What if some cruel faerie or mischievous goblin had been capering about in the garage the night before, maliciously altering the distance between the two points? What if the surface of the earth had - in an astonishing coincidence - contracted between A and B and the device simultaneously inaccurately mismeasured to the same degree? Cox insisted that that measurement ought to have been corroborated and that by dint of not having been, he should have been acquitted on the basis of an insufficiency of evidence.

The Court reminded us of a case from 1957 and the somewhat less technologically sophistical procedure employed by the polis at that time to see if vehicles vrooming in excess of the speed limit. In Gillespie v MacMillan a speeding motorist's appealed against his conviction. In the opinion of the Court, Lord Hardie expounds:

"... the methodology adopted at that time did not involve the use of approved devices but rather the use by a police constable at each end of a measured distance of a stopwatch, the issue for the court was similar to the issue in the present case. The contention of the appellant in that case was that there was not sufficient evidence in law to warrant the conviction of the appellant, since the exact moment of entry into the measured distance was spoken to by one witness only, as was the exact moment of exit from the measured distance, and that each of these two events must be proved by two witnesses."

Gone are the days when police officers had to know their speed = distance / time.  In the event, Cox was unable to persuade the bench that range-accuracy of the instrument was required to be demonstrated by corroborated evidence, so he'll have to fork out his £250 and thole his three penalty pips. In its reasoning, the Court quoted these pungent phrases from Lord Justice Clerk Thomson's judgment in Gillespie:

"If law were an exact science or even a department of logic, there might be something to be said for this argument. By relying on the disparate qualities of space and time the logician can prove that in a race the hare can never overtake the tortoise. But law is a practical affair and has to approach its problems in a mundane common-sense way. We cannot expect always to have a tidy and interrelated picture; in real life a surrealistic element is apt to creep in, and the picture, though untidy and inharmonious may be a picture all the same." Lord Justice Clerk Thomson in Gillespie v. MacMillan 1957 JC 31, 40.

A rare example of Scots legal poetics?

17 February 2011

Aitken out...

In Holyrood's stage 3 debate on the Criminal Justice and Licensing Bill last summer, Baillie Bill Aitken's contribution prompted guffaws. The Official Report records the laughter of his colleagues. I dare say the man himself chose his words with a certain degree of levity, but his comments struck me as expressing something quite fundamental about  his self-image, how he regarded himself.

Bill Aitken: As a young man from a poor area of Glasgow, I had many friends in low places and got to know the criminal mindset. [Laughter.]

The Presiding Officer: Order.

Bill Aitken: That impression was confirmed when I sat on the bench and has been reinforced by discussions with criminal lawyers in Glasgow. For a troublesome and small minority, prison is the only thing that will work...

I have also noted with human interest how Aitken conducts himself in the Justice Committee, with advocates and lawyers and judges. He has a tendency to fawn deferentially to judicial figures. He is always at pains to employ the appropriate legal terms. With Aitken, these terminological exactitudes always struck me as bearing a certain show of deliberation. They are not casual references to known facts, but something he clearly regarded it as crucial to get right, to talk about things in the right sort of way, showing himself to be the right sort of person. He speaks like an anxious insider, uncertain of his status. Nor does it seem incidental that Aitken played m'lud in the justice of the peace court. He bears all the hallmarks of a frustrated would-be lawyer, who pursued a political career at the expense of a longed for judicial one. Aitken's cynical wordliness is premised on what he no doubt takes to be a tough, realistic, no-nonsense attitude towards life. He is unsympathetic. Unlike his colleagues on the bench, who were taken in by all those villains who are at it, JP Aitken saw clearly, shrewdly. On some level, he identifies with the villain. He is not sentimental. I can distinctly imagine him sentencing a man to death, with a grim twinkle in either eye. In his respect, these features are redolent of the qualities ascribed to Scots judges in their hanging days - gruff Lord Braxfield and even the philosophical Kames (Aitken albeit without the learning of either gentleman in the tricky business of the Corpus Iuris Civilis).

But enough with the background Aitkenology. These features of his character and self-understanding, emerge strongly from the appalling transcripts of the Sunday Herald journalist's interview with Aitken, published in full on the New Statesman website. The dirty minded bluntness, the knowing doubts, the self-flattering scepticism of a man of the world, who knows about these things and isn't hoodwinked by bints in alleys. The conversation is annihilating for Aitken's credibility. All the more because it reads like a relaxed expression of the views of a man who thought he was off the record, and that nothing he has said could prompt complaint.

Doubt is not in short supply in our institutions of public justice. It is an elementary principle of our criminal law that to convict, the prosecution must prove their case beyond reasonable doubt. In the name of doubt, we maintain laws of evidence which do not even allow many cases to be put before juries and judges to decide. To this appalling weight of doubt, Aitken thoughtfully contributed his own, immediately, unprompted. His first, spontaneous response to news of a violent gang rape was to begin cross-examining the testimony of the victim. His second, unprompted response to the story was to focus on the circumstances of this gang rape, unilaterally implying a background of prostitution, knowingly adding "there's a lot more to these city-centre rapes than meet the eye". As other bloggers have noted (cf Grace Murray on Bella Caledonia), Aitken's remarks reflect  two well-documented tendencies in the discussion of rape. Firstly, respond with immediate, uneven and unjustified suspicion towards the victim. Secondly, from the limited facts available, strongly emphasise those facts which impute some degree of responsibility to the victim and purport to undermine their moral stature. What was she doing in Renfield Lane? Where had she been? Did she go with somebody? These are the first questions which occur to you, Mr Aitken? You hear tell that a women has been outrageously sexually assaulted in public, and these are the first words you stammer out? 

I agree with the Corbie's conclusion. As convenor of Holyrood's Justice Committee, parliament reposes a measure of trust in Bill Aitken. This terrible conversation cannot but deprive him of that trust. He must be pried from his spot as Convenor of Justice Committee. If Annabel Goldie will not be the iconoclast, then Parliament must do so for her. If she will do nothing? On her head be it...

16 February 2011

SNP whisker ahead in Holyrood poll...

Fortune is a pucker-faced old beldam. Just as a peaty jaunt is indicated, she brings gifts, with a goading wink and a rotten, amorous smile. This morning, our abacus-wielding friends in Ipsos-MORI have published the anticipated February round of their Scottish Public Opinion Monitor. The top line data is now available here. Unfortunately, the detailed numbers are not yet available. Happily, the detailed computer tables have been published, disaggregated by age, gender and many of the other old familiar social categories regular readers of such polling will be familiar with. The report runs to 119 pages and ranges far beyond the party political keynotes, noted below. Questions include respondents' apprehensions about which are the most pressing matters of public concern. Unfortunately, however, I still don't have the immediate time to take a detailed look at what this poll might imply for my particular bugbear: women's voting intentions, the SNP and the gender voting gap. As you will recall, the last Scots poll presented a decidedly bleak picture for nationalists on that score. Clearly, these findings seem much more encouraging. As those of you who purchased a copy of the Times this morning or who pay your Murdoch tariff will know, the top line voting figures, amongst those certain to vote were as follows...

In Holyrood constituencies...
  • SNP 37%
  • Labour 36%
  • Conservative 13%
  • Liberal Democrat 10%
  • Greens 2%
  • SSP 1%
  • Other 1%

On the Holyrood list, amongst those certain to vote...
  • SNP 35%
  • Labour 33%
  • Conservative 13%
  • Liberal Democrat 10%
  • Greens 6%
  • SSP 1%
  • Other 2%

Asked, Are you satisfied with the way Alex Salmond is doing his job as First Minister? Respondents said:
  • Satisfied 51% (54% November 2010)
  • Dissatisfied 35% (37% November 2010)
  • Don't know 14% (9% November 2010)

Same question(ish), on how well Dame Bella of Doily is doing "her job"...
  • Satisfied 32% (37% Nov '10)
  • Dissatisfied 30% (36% Nov '10)
  • Don't know 38% (26% Nov '10)

Same question on the efficacy the Snark, LOLITSP...
  • Satisfied 33% (39% Nov '10)
  • Dissatisfied 34% (24% Nov '10)
  • Don't know 33% (27% Nov '10)

Same question on Tavish Scott (who still resists a satisfying satirical alternative name...)
  • Satisfied 26% (31% Nov '10)
  • Dissatisfied 34% (35% Nov '10)
  • Don't know 40% (34% Nov '10)

Take a look at the Ipsos-MORI figures for yourself here.

15 February 2011

All's quiet on the peaty front...

According to one learned diviner, the earth's shoogly orbit has skewed human perceptions of the Zodiac. Forlorn Geminis and Leos all across the land are seeking tea and sympathy as a result of their emotionally bruising "Cancer scares".  Others fear that tepid waters are growing warm, and cold waters are heating up. Hot air is endemic. Disordered nature wreaks her vengeance, her placid expression unmoved. Even those of us in the peat worrying business are not unaffected by these shifts in our disordered Nature.  Although traditionally, the Scottish Peat Worrying Season opened on the “Glorious Sixteenth of May” with hullabaloo, ballyhoo, dwam and dram - this year the ancient lowland peat-stained rituals are beginning almost a month earlier. 


Donning my Tweed pheasant-feathered bunnet and plus fours; tarasgeir, tusker and flaughter stowed under oxter, propitiatory googas gralloched; jelly pieces and a bumper o’ tappit hen broth tucked in my satchel - I'll be filling my bothie with peat-heat and Islay savoured smoke for the main part of this week. The technical term for this subset of traditional lallands activity is finnanhaddification. Although I am authoritatively advised that the technique is originally of 15th Century Celty-Pictish origin, it was popularised in Victorian times amongst pipe smokers who didn't fancy loafing about and slurping the foul-tasting waters in frou frou Spa towns. I anticipate that the expectorate virtues of this operation will lend my voice a exaggerated stentorian gravity and stain the old phizog a healthy deep mahogany. My bothie not boasting wireless connectivity, blogging shall be light to non-existed here this week. Tally-ho!

13 February 2011

Souter's lolly ...

In a debate, there are few things more discombobulating that seeing someone advocating something you agree with, relying on arguments which you find disagreeable. Really, this phenomenon shouldn’t surprise us. Many roads lead to Rome, after all. In recent public policy terms, perhaps my favourite example of this awkward meeting materialised in the deliberative context of the Sexual Offences (Scotland) Act 2009. Historically, Scots criminal law defined rape in gender specific terms. In law, a man could not be ‘raped’. Until the Act of 2009 this Common Law position obtained, unreformed. Mooting the uncontroversial proposal to recognise such an offence in the Justice Committee, LGBT groups referred to such ideas as equality and the significance of naming for the recognition of the suffering of victims, in calling for reform. The Catholic Parliamentary Office supported this broadened definition of the offence, but cited the belief that anal sex was ‘intrinsically disordered’. The practical outcome was agreed upon, but the reasoning process of the respective parties, justifying this change, was entirely incompatible. This phenomenon is doubtlessly more pervasive than we realise, with  different individuals and groups vying to furnish the authoritative account of why a particular policy is being pursued and why it is a Good Thing.

It occurs to me that there is a second species of awkwardness: where someone you disagree with informs you that he is on your side. Or, as the erstwhile Republican candidate in Delaware for the United States Senate Christine O'Donnell unsettlingly put it, "I'm you". Gulp. I wonder how often red and blue canvassers have heard permutations of racist opinion, to justify supporting a Labour or Tory candidate whose hobbies include explicit or veiled assaults on the numbers or imputed behaviour of "visible minorities". Are you thinking what we're thinking? While my first example focusses on specific debates on particular issues, this second category of angst is a little different, and rather more problematic. Anyone with a modicum of reflection, or who attends even a little to the activities of their party representatives, will find areas of disagreement, terminological objections, alternative priorities and different emphases. This is true within parties as well, as different elements consciously and unconsciously elbow and nudge each other on specific issues of policy and questions of broad emphasis. As a result, if you look to a party's avowed catalogue of beliefs before joining or supporting them, seeking an exact simulacrum of your own commitments, your search will prove fruitless and your ballot paper would be left unscratched. Unless, that is, slavish adherence is your only orthodoxy. Every political serf of that character can find a master to suit his needs.
 
Compromise is inherent in any involvement and identification with a political movement or party, particularly larger and broader political groupings. Whether you are a Labour member, a Liberal Democrat supporter - the flexibility of these identities are largely subjective. Take this commonplace example. Many folk are bemused at the loyalty of Scottish Labour voters - many of them bright, critical folk - who are Gordian-knotted to the party. A familiar explanation for this is tradition, and a reflexive use of the franchise to repeat the old, old rituals of voting Labour. On this explanation, Labour support is depicted as largely detatched from their actual policies and proposals. Doubtlessly, this is an important dimension to the tale, but is not an exhaustive explanation. I heard Bob Holman being interviewed by Richard Holloway on Radio Scotland last Sunday. He spoke of his long term and continuing political commitment to the Labour Party.  I dare say he is very conscious that Labour's approach to public services are not consonant with his own views, yet he persists in supporting them. Another interesting example on that front is the blogger A Very Public Sociologist, who has engagingly discussed the conundrums of being a "socialist in the Labour Party", after leaving the Socialist Party and rejoining Labour. Over at Bright Green Scotland, Adam Ramsay has recently explained why he is not a member of the Labour Party, which touches on similar issues of (a) the muddled priorities of individual and party (b) the problems of political praxis and critically I think (c) the issue of the unrealised potential of pre-existing political movements.

My sense is that I'm socially far more liberal than many of my fellow Nationalists. I am also likely to take a more liberal view when it comes to criminal legislation. It is often suggested that nationalism is the sole SNP party unifier, however, as I've touched on before,  many of the party's supporters (and some of its membership) are undecided on their answers to the ultimate constitutional question.  Even where there is agreement on the raw bones of the party's ultimate goals, there are differences on what strategies should be employed to realise those aims. That leaves a complex image of a party of poised, compromised associations and tendencies. Like most parties. 

That meandering disquisition was largely prompted by an electronic epistle that arrived in my inbox last night from a certain Brian Souter. I had been unaware that we were on intimate, corresponding terms, but the text informed me that he was once again to make a significant donation to the SNP, up to £500,000. Like a number of fellow nationalists, I have certain qualms about accepting such a large donation from Souter, but similarly struggle to see the benefit, to quote the man himself, of telling him that "We're no huvin' it". On the Souter question, a certain opinionated Corbie offers this view and rightly emphasises that many similar issues appear whenever any individual or corporation makes a vast donation to any political party. Jeff Breslin emphasises the impact which a chest full of spendable doubloons has on the electoral fortunes of political parties. In Souter's case, my unease is I think largely attributable to the second model of awkwardness I outlined at the beginning - the implicit, Christine O'Donnellesque implication that Souter looks at the SNP and says I'm You. I totally reject Souter's position on Section 2A (or Section 28, as it was more commonly known), as was. I support eliminating the gender qualifications attaching to both civil partnerships and marriage in Scotland. If I thought Souter was backing Nationalists because he entertained a reasonably held belief that the party represented a vehicle for the persecution of minority sexualities, I'd chop up my SNP membership card whippity quick and hie me to different climes.  However, just as individuals cannot look to parties for an exhaustible mirror image of their own beliefs, we shouldn't make the mistake of thinking that the speculum can be reversed any more readily and that supporters, voters or even members should accept every policy held by the party.  I dare say that some folk will not and have not voted for the SNP on the basis of Souter's significant donations, assuming that for his quid the SNP must give Souter some sort of heteronormative pro quo. That is their prerogative. For my part, I don't believe the motto by their friends shall ye know them is quite as straightforward as it appears and would suggest that it should be understood the wider context outlined above. I'd be fibbing, however, if I said Souter's lolly didn't prompt a pang or two.