tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post6480461632847697283..comments2024-03-28T07:16:39.621+00:00Comments on Lallands Peat Worrier: On the political leprosy of the Scottish Tories...Lallands Peat Worrierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18276270498204697708noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-22585670904056500762011-09-14T14:11:11.543+01:002011-09-14T14:11:11.543+01:00Edwin - I can't find the per-seat turnouts any...Edwin - I can't find the per-seat turnouts anywhere, but reason suggests that turnout would be lower in seats like Salmond's than in marginals.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-89247645692888587032011-09-13T13:28:21.736+01:002011-09-13T13:28:21.736+01:00LPW
If you start in the mid 50s when the Tories w...LPW<br /><br />If you start in the mid 50s when the Tories were at the strongest and look which areas they held on to the longest, those areas went on to become SNP strongholds.<br /><br />There's no great mystery where the Tory vote in Scotland went, it went to the SNP.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-66579346496822127842011-09-12T12:43:20.134+01:002011-09-12T12:43:20.134+01:00Stevie,
You must have a touch of the Brahan Seer!...<b>Stevie,</b><br /><br />You must have a touch of the Brahan Seer! I'd go along with much of what you say about the pre-election Labour performance, and you'll find almost nobody, even in their party, who defends the 2011 campaign as much less than a calamity. For all that, I was certainly more pessimistic than yourself - and a thoroughly depressing it was too, given how naff prospect of a Scottish Labour government was.<br /><br /><b>Edwin,</b><br /><br />Quite so. Shortly after the 2010 election, BBC Scotland put together a show entitled something like - I paraphrase from memory - <i>Why does nobody in Scotland vote Tory?</i> Empirically, the question is clearly rubbish, particularly given the relative nearness of the Conservatives to the SNP in the 2010 election.<br /><br /><b>James Morton,</b><br /><br />To pick out one of your points, geography is interesting - and as you say, a 17% spread of the vote across a country does you no good at all, without delving deep and digging in to constituencies. Instead of running the pretense of a national campaign, the Tories might to better spending all their cash on a couple of seats and give up on all the others. It could only improve on their mighty store of one MP. It often occurred to me that the Scottish Greens might consider something similar - try to generate themselves a geographically located "core", rather than wafting about the country, getting bugger all support, just barely limping along.<br /><br /><b>Ken</b>,<br /><br /><i>Guilty as charged!</i> With all of the polls in mind recently, I seem to have become thoroughly colonised...<br /><br /><b>Anonymous 10/09/11</b>,<br /><br />It rather depends whether we're talking about Westminster, or Holyrood, or both - and how far back in time you are willing to go. Although constituency boundaries have changed, a quick glance over the electoral maps since the late 1970s are of interest here.<br /><br /><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Feb_1974_UK_Election_Map.png" rel="nofollow">UK General Election February 1974</a><br /><br /><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_election,_Oct_1974_%28low_res%29.png" rel="nofollow">UK General Election October 1974</a><br /><br /><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/98/1979_UK_Election_Map.png" rel="nofollow">UK General Election 1979</a><br /><br /><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/18/UK_Election_Map_1983.png" rel="nofollow">UK General Election 1983</a><br /><br /><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/1992_UK_Election_Results.png" rel="nofollow">UK General Election 1987</a><br /><br /><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/1992_UK_Election_Results.png" rel="nofollow">UK General Election 1992</a><br /><br /><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/1/1c/Uk_%27971.png%22" rel="nofollow">UK General Election 1997</a><br /><br />And post devolution...<br /><br /><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/8/8a/Scottish_Parliament_election_1999_map.svg%22" rel="nofollow">Scottish Parliament constituencies 1999</a><br /><br /><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c0/Scottish_Parliament_election_2003_map.svg" rel="nofollow">Scottish Parliament constituencies 2003</a><br /><br /><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Scottish_Parliament_election_2007_map.svg" rel="nofollow">Scottish Parliament constituencies 2007</a><br /><br /><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Scottish_Parliament_election_2011_map.svg" rel="nofollow">Scottish Parliament constituencies 2011</a>Lallands Peat Worrierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07238432265194046726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-63127299229109563392011-09-11T10:21:13.358+01:002011-09-11T10:21:13.358+01:00Anon - 10/09/2011 said: Am I right in thinking tha...Anon - 10/09/2011 said: Am I right in thinking that the steady decline in Tory fortunes was followed by a steady increase in SNP fortunes, and that the areas which were once Tory strongholds are now largely SNP strongholds? -<br /><br />I think that would be a fair assessment. As the party was increasingly seen as not being very "Scottish" and unable to reconnect with the larger electorate after 97, it seems these people switched to a party that was deemed more capable. But you also have to consider boundary changes impacting on their core vote, spreading them out as it were, so they don't dominate any area effectively as they once did. The PR system used in the Scottish parliament is what keeps them going I think. Without it, I suspect a decision to break away from Westminster would have come much sooner. I also suspect they would have all but withered on the vine to morph into a fruit & nut party like UKIP.James Mortonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-58118691678559929512011-09-10T22:48:17.509+01:002011-09-10T22:48:17.509+01:00Am I right in thinking that the steady decline in ...Am I right in thinking that the steady decline in Tory fortunes was followed by a steady increase in SNP fortunes, and that the areas which were once Tory strongholds are now largely SNP strongholds?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-58911136656182146042011-09-10T22:18:42.487+01:002011-09-10T22:18:42.487+01:00Really thoughtful and interesting article LPW, you...Really thoughtful and interesting article LPW, you have explored this matter in a very insightful way.AliMillarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-68372048552797691902011-09-10T14:10:08.777+01:002011-09-10T14:10:08.777+01:00Minor pedantic peeve: it's 'pole position&...Minor pedantic peeve: it's '<i>pole</i> position', not 'poll position', dammit!Kenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03493440163559858462noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-59655729443282853152011-09-10T10:38:44.507+01:002011-09-10T10:38:44.507+01:00As i have said in other blogs - and quite possibly...As i have said in other blogs - and quite possibly this one, it's not the Brand, it's the message. You only had to watch Fraser and Forsyth argue it out on newsnight to see how utterly out of touch the Scottish conservatives have become. Fraser thinks the name needs to change, and Forsyth thinks they need to keep banging the same old drum but a bit more loudly than before.<br /><br />It didn't take long for 1955 result to rear it's head but of course both men chose not to talk about how they were never able to build on it, or hold on to that majority position as it slowly slipped through their fingers.<br /><br />For conservatives to recover, they really need to put to rest their disquiet over devolution, and they also need to stop dragging that fly blown corpse of Thatcherism around with them, expecting us to give it a big sloppy kiss. That's not going to happen. They also need to stand on their own in Westminster and not take the tory whip - this is also not likely to happen. They need to declare to the Scottish people that they have come to bury Thatcherism not praise it which is not very likely at all. To completely detoxify the party would take a fundamental shift in ideology, and I don't think they have that in them. Too prideful, too resentful of devolution, angry incomprehension at their defeats at the hands of the Scottish electorate. Unwilling to admit that they are the architects of their own misfortunes. In other words too much baggage for any hope of real change.<br /><br />The polling numbers are also deceptive. True they had 16.7% and the SNP only 3% more, but 16.7% Tory goodness is spread too thin over Scotland to dominate anyone area completely. So it's not just voting intentions but geography they need to take into account.<br /><br />As for Labour - they were disgraceful in opposition, largely behaving like spoiled children having a tantrum. They richly deserved the drubbing they got from the Scottish electorate.<br /><br />In closing I would like to add something to the whole apathy debate. A lot of people stayed at home, and many are asking why.<br />But lest we forget, we saw the most shameful and criminal behaviour from politicians during the expenses scandal. I know I was struck with a deep sense of loathing and disgust at their antics, and yes it made me stay at home during the 2010 election - and I did have to force myself to vote for the Scottish parliament. I can't be the only one who feels that way. We also have consider the fact that they as a class seem hell bent on relinquishing the levers of power and putting into the hands of private enterprise. Which is why they look so helpless when energy bills keep rising and food bills are going through the roof. Who would vote for someone who can only wring their hands while suggesting perhaps you should switch provider/move to a cheaper area/eat less perhaps?James Mortonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-77385218470620480812011-09-10T09:52:48.648+01:002011-09-10T09:52:48.648+01:00Fascinating stuff
'In 2010, Conservative cand...Fascinating stuff<br /><br />'In 2010, Conservative candidates attracted 16.7% of votes across the country.'<br /><br />True - and the SNP got just about 3% more!<br /><br />The real story of Scottish politics just now is not just the volatility but the numbing apathy. 63% turnout Westminster; 50% turnout for Holyrood,<br /><br />In my own constituency. the turnout was in the late 30s (38% I think). One seat that intrigues (rather than just depresses) me is the turnout in Salmond's own seat. - 48% stayed home. Why?Edwin Moorehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05317173893948248954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-77176557313099120982011-09-10T09:18:57.696+01:002011-09-10T09:18:57.696+01:00Drat, can't edit typos.Drat, can't edit typos.Steviehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18226832161404154663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-9800281859901153712011-09-10T09:15:18.960+01:002011-09-10T09:15:18.960+01:00I began to see the SNP were going to win the elect...I began to see the SNP were going to win the election in very early January.<br /><br />The voters had seen voting Labour had produced a coalition that was both dogmatic and deaf.<br /><br />Labour as a political party were really just Tories in a ll but name and thus did not offer a credible alternative or actual opposition.<br /><br />Meanwhile, Labour in Scotland had spent 4 years opposing for the sake of everything the SNP proposed and had done this in the most transparently insulting of ways (e.g. The Alcohol Council - their own chosen people pretending to be an official sort of organisation).<br /><br />By late December, despite the polls, Labour generall had accomplished nothing in opposition in Westminster and had looked rather arrogant in their imagining people were just going to accept their opposing everything - even things they asked the SNP to do. Their sense of natural hegemony blinded them (and following everything they say to each other on the net, still doed - bless them for that).<br /><br />I was speaking with a friend who was surprised (early January) that I held this view. It was clear to me as Isaid to him: the Labour party is full of second rate politicians who arrogantly believe (following the glow of the previous Westminster victory) that they are going to win. It was clear to me they had no actual credible policies and the one policy they had of perhaps doubling or tripling the council tax was political suicide.<br /><br />My VERY VERY BIG disappointment (and it still is) was someone in Labour - I suspect someone from Westminster - told them your policies are very unattractive and will discourage voters.<br /><br />Even the Labour party in Scotland saw this and because they didn't have any policies they decided to tak ethe SNPO's policies (badly purloined but purloined nonetheless). Had they not taken all the SNP policies they were, in my view, facing electoral extinction.<br /><br />As it was the voters had a look at this revised version of Scottish Labour, considered how awful they truly are and said, 'No way'. <br /><br />We were treated to the comedy of Labour's Monty Python election (Subway, stolen SNP policies, reversal of almost all their positions, the knife crime financing farce, the terrible TV performances of Gray-Baker-Kerr - terrible because their ideas were off the cuff, the 'fag-packet' manifesto where Labour 'pledged' to get rid of 'failed Labour', the 2nd or 3rd campaign relaunch).<br /><br />Had they not adopted SNP positions then we would have been looking at a very different representation of Labour in the Scottish parliament. That is my deep regret that they picked up on just how stupid they were. <br /><br /><br />I knew as soon as the voters would reject Labour as they began to analyse, listen to and think about the choices put before them : a smart vibrant effective SNP or a lazy, thoughtless, amateur and hegemonic Labour.Steviehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18226832161404154663noreply@blogger.com