tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post586703537804407386..comments2024-03-28T07:16:39.621+00:00Comments on Lallands Peat Worrier: Critical friendsLallands Peat Worrierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18276270498204697708noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-20402422056491077882016-08-17T14:17:23.718+01:002016-08-17T14:17:23.718+01:00"I don't doubt Alex's intentions are ..."I don't doubt Alex's intentions are good and constructive in this respect"<br /><br />Take your tongue out of your cheek before you injure yourself.Vronskyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17797785918817375436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-75334733871402774212015-11-22T16:01:22.040+00:002015-11-22T16:01:22.040+00:00Thanks and sorry, I didn't intend to personali...Thanks and sorry, I didn't intend to personalize anything to you. It was a general plea in the context of Alex Bell's article where he effectively criticized the SNP for pretending to be anti-austerity when independence would actually lead to more. FFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16627719160178595437noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-12473457425772966422015-11-22T12:52:15.459+00:002015-11-22T12:52:15.459+00:00I pretended nothing in relation to whether or to w...I pretended nothing in relation to whether or to what extent cuts would be necessary. What I did say was that such speculation should not be based on the predication that you first put, that Scotland could only spend money it generated, which almost no country in the world does. Nor should it be based on your further speculation that Scotland might not obtain credit, clearly implied in your comment that "you can't borrow unless someone is willing to lend." <br />What remains, then, is the rate at which Scotland would obtain credit, a subject I referred to myself, and the subsequent performance of the Scottish economy after independence. That is the central point when it comes to whether or not and to what extent Scotland would have to make cuts to services. And on that matter, that's anybody's guess.cujimmyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03103417049757254227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-66867618320936028882015-11-22T11:49:48.142+00:002015-11-22T11:49:48.142+00:00Even if we accept that you are correct about Bell&...Even if we accept that you are correct about Bell's tone of voice, I note that the substance of his point is rarely touched upon in your posting. You say that everything should be critically appraised regarding the last independence campaign, which is good, but then you avoid doing so! Scotland would be facing a real nightmare right now if we voted Yes - a huge deficit, new currency arrangements of whatever form, and an expansion of the bureaucracy when it would struggle to pay existing civil servants at their current salaries.theamblerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01842086380447890404noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-56708088145989121772015-11-22T11:19:18.222+00:002015-11-22T11:19:18.222+00:00I would go along with that. LPW is certainly no &#...I would go along with that. LPW is certainly no 'warrior'.James Colemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08940550268246715045noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-101664938476324052015-11-21T22:53:48.803+00:002015-11-21T22:53:48.803+00:00However, I didn't actually say, "you can ...However, I didn't actually say, "you can borrow but no-one will lend". It's the other two statements that are coherent. Sorry.FFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16627719160178595437noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-68620447145290273942015-11-21T22:50:18.748+00:002015-11-21T22:50:18.748+00:00Those three statements are coherent because an ind...Those three statements are coherent because an independent Scottish government would have NO CHOICE but to severely cut back expenditures. You're right that other countries do go over the 3% EU deficit limit - at which point you get a letter from the European Central Bank requiring you to detail how you are going to cut expenditures and/or raise revenues to bring your deficit within the limit. If you don't believe this, ask the Greeks, who have to run a primary surplus at the moment.<br /><br />If you think these inevitable cuts are an acceptable price to pay for the goal of independence, that's fine. But don't pretended that independence is a way to avoid austerity. It's the exact opposite. It will bring a lot more.<br /><br />FFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16627719160178595437noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-91240387777005415682015-11-21T16:24:35.812+00:002015-11-21T16:24:35.812+00:00So basically we've gone from "you can onl...So basically we've gone from "you can only spend what you've got" to "you can borrow but no-one will lend" to "it won't be a disaster but it'll cause massive cuts". I've seen that declension of the anti-Independence economic argument many times over the last 3 years. It's a classic. Along with the 2% of GDP that Scotland was apparently obliged to spend on defence to be in NATO when huge swathes of NATO members spend less, and it turns out to be recommended and not a cast iron condition. Along with that 3℅ limit on deficit in the EU which many in the EU don't even get near, again not an actual requirement but a recommendation. Along with the £1.3 trillion assets that Scotland would have been forced to underwrite had it been Independent at the time of the bank crash, when in fact neither would it have had any obligation to do so, nor even if it chose to support banks in trouble would it have had to find £1.3 trillion, but the amount related to banking activity under its regulation within its own economy, as the US did, as London did, as the European Central Bank did. <br />If we are going to seriously scrutinise the economic case for Independence, it would be best if we focus on what is actually the case, not on what is not. cujimmyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03103417049757254227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-84841573669342034302015-11-20T22:53:13.176+00:002015-11-20T22:53:13.176+00:00Mr Alex Gallagher: A BritNat basher of otherered N...Mr Alex Gallagher: A BritNat basher of otherered Nats (especially when Jock of whatever gender, colour, or creed (or none of the latter)).<br /><br />Ane bonny Bellite vigorously Redcoat in full-on, macho head-butting posture in terms of "argumentation" as opposed to Mr Bell's sleekit chib-man style slashing, back-stabbing discourse approach.<br /><br />The said chib tipped with venom.<br /><br />Mr Bell - in effect - rattling-on in his appropriately titled new publication minus cited sources.<br /><br />The LPW discursively emollient as if Scotland simply requires a constitutional and socio-political palliative plus a wee dose o' something akin to "Syrup of Figs" to ease the bowels and release the constipation long-afflicting of our "North British" economy, too?<br /><br />Perhaps not.<br /><br />However, smooth as a legal eagle - and pleasant this is if not to the pheasant wheeched.<br /><br />But could we sometimes have a wee bit more "baws tae the wa's" constitutional houghmagandie from you from time to time, please?<br /><br />A wee touch of Robespierre or Hamilton or Raibeart Black?<br /><br />Otherwise, merci buckets.<br /><br />Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02975588480290026016noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-34748616126574854372015-11-20T15:08:31.540+00:002015-11-20T15:08:31.540+00:00there is a huge gulf between that economic challen...<i>there is a huge gulf between that economic challenge and the scenario that no-one would lend at all.</i><br /><br />Agreed. I don't expect the fiscal issues would be a disaster. Nevertheless independence would lead to major belt-tightening. I think it's a problem if you are campaigning on a platform of opposing Tory cuts, when the implied cuts from your own policies are much higher again.<br /><br />I forgot to mention that under EU treaty rules,an independent Scotland would be obliged to aim to keep its deficit to less than 3% - it is currently a nominal 11%.FFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16627719160178595437noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-44747285360177752482015-11-20T14:34:48.003+00:002015-11-20T14:34:48.003+00:00Standard & Poors assessment of Scotland in rel...Standard & Poors assessment of Scotland in relation to its potential creditworthiness was certainly cautionary, but by no means grim. Moody's and Fitch were slightly more pessimistic but again not disastrous. Scotland would certainly have been able to borrow, probably at a higher rate initially than the UK borrows at now - but there is a huge gulf between that economic challenge and the scenario that no-one would lend at all. That would simply not be the case.cujimmyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03103417049757254227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-20585472614323909912015-11-20T08:59:37.655+00:002015-11-20T08:59:37.655+00:00....or you could read some of the dissenting voice.......or you could read some of the dissenting voices, like Stieglitz, Krugman, Keen, Hills, Dorling, Atkinson, Weeks, Pettifor etc.Geejayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14309811809080568373noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-36382421998695601052015-11-20T00:12:09.299+00:002015-11-20T00:12:09.299+00:00The "fiscal gap" is 4-5% at the moment. ...The "fiscal gap" is 4-5% at the moment. That means that whatever deficit the UK has, an independent or fiscally autonomous Scotland would, if nothing else changes, have a 4-5 percentage points higher deficit. Ironically, the more the Tories cut now, the less an independent Scotland would have to cut later to achieve sustainable debt levels.<br /><br />But things wouldn't stay the same. They would almost certainly get worse, but how much worse depends on the currency adopted, the debt/asset negotiations with the rUK, what happens to Scottish-based banks and the degree of capital flight. And you can't borrow unless someone is willing to lend. It depends on what terms Scotland could get from them. It's complicated; it's not my expertise and there are plenty of blog items on the topic written by central bank economics experts. They mostly make grim reading, I have to say.FFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16627719160178595437noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-29748825461916836632015-11-19T19:58:23.255+00:002015-11-19T19:58:23.255+00:00OK, FF, re neoliberal. I don't accept that ta...OK, FF, re neoliberal. I don't accept that tax revenues will necessarily be lower.<br /><br />Exactly so, cujimmy. Time for some of us to read a bit about economics.Geejayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14309811809080568373noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-33871865992359345532015-11-19T15:29:59.889+00:002015-11-19T15:29:59.889+00:00The UK is currently spending billions it doesn'...The UK is currently spending billions it doesn't have. It's called public borrowing. Almost every nation does it, and has been doing it for centuries. There is no reason to suppose that Scotland would somehow not be able to do the same.cujimmyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03103417049757254227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-29103227757894823722015-11-19T13:39:00.372+00:002015-11-19T13:39:00.372+00:00Fair enough on your other points, but to clarify, ...Fair enough on your other points, but to clarify, I don't make a "neoliberal assertion that the only option is to cut". I am recapping the gist of Alex Bell's argument. I do agree with him that you can only spend money you have got and that tax revenues will be lower in an independent Scotland. Therefore independence implies cuts. FFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16627719160178595437noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-52229529519906863862015-11-19T12:27:13.078+00:002015-11-19T12:27:13.078+00:00I still say no economic analysis. No figures, no ...I still say no economic analysis. No figures, no discussion, no evidence. I don't accept the IFS as being a gospel, as it is fully signed up to neoliberalism and projects Scotland's performance on the basis that we continue with the failed economic policies of WM. There are many credible alternative scenarios.<br /><br />I repudiate your neoliberal assertion that the only option is to cut. That's what Osborne is doing and isn't that going down well at the food banks. The rich (and moderately well-off) are not paying their fair share of taxes, and neither are companies. Plenty of authors have spelled out how billions are syphoned off by individuals and corporates and into tax havens and the pockets of the wealthy. That's what we've got to tackle, not more cuts.<br /><br />Or perhaps you agree with the Tories killing off the welfare state and the post-war social consensus, which is disappearing fast.<br /><br />Yes, for many it is still about the economics, but let's open our minds to other possibilities. The "unaffordability" of the welfare state, greater equality, improving the life chances for the poor and so on, is a pernicious piece of propaganda constructed by the rich and powerful for the rich and powerful. Atkinson, Dorling, Stieglitz and others have shown it doesn't have to be like this. There is always an alternative.Geejayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14309811809080568373noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-37005156081886136842015-11-19T11:34:46.305+00:002015-11-19T11:34:46.305+00:00It looks like you are ignoring Alex Bell's arg...It looks like you are ignoring Alex Bell's arguments.<br /><br /><i>There is no economic analysis, instead there are snide comments about nasty Tory cuts - does he think the cuts are just a mild inconvenience for a few - and there are no constructive thoughts about possible alternatives</i><br /><br />Mr Bell's point is that there would be fewer revenues* available to an independent Scottish government than currently comes through the Westminster system. Westminster Tories might choose to cut, but the independent Scottish government would have no choice except to cut. If you believe independence trumps everything else, you might think that an acceptable price to pay, but it is inconsistent with the SNP’s anti-austerity rhetoric.<br /><br />* Based on what we know now still applying and as projected by the Institute of Fiscal Studies and others. Sure, things can change – there may be pots of gold or barrels of cheaply accessible oil hidden somewhere. But we need to base our decisions on something concrete. The White Paper is full of those somethings. Whether you accept its assertions is another matter, but it isn’t 600 pages of waffle. And if people think Wings over Scotland, and not the IFS and the Scottish Government Statistics Service, is the authority and has the proper grasp of the facts and figures, I am afraid there is – politely – no point in discussing the nuts and bolts. The discussion won’t go anywhere.<br /><br /><i>for many Independence isn't primarily about economics, it's about civic nationalism, self-determination, making our own decisions.</i><br /><br />Undoubtedly. And I’m guessing Mr Bell is that camp. But those people are a minority of Scots. To win over the sceptics and to get to that majority, you have to win on the economic arguments, which is why the White Paper and other Yes Scotland publicity went very strongly on the economics. It would be dishonest to come back after the event and say, what we said doesn’t count. It was never about the economics<br />FFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16627719160178595437noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-69167416757420928332015-11-19T09:46:14.556+00:002015-11-19T09:46:14.556+00:00What observation? That the SNP need to keep devel...What observation? That the SNP need to keep developing the case for Independence? Certainly, but the article is simply a polemic, full of unsubstantiated statements, sound-bites and smart-Alex remarks leading nowhere, other than to say SNP Bad and Stupid. It comes across as a petulant schoolboy essay from someone who has been disappointed to find he's not been given the adulation from the SNP he thinks he deserves and has gone off in the huff to join Labour. <br /><br />There is no economic analysis, instead there are snide comments about nasty Tory cuts - does he think the cuts are just a mild inconvenience for a few - and there are no constructive thoughts about possible alternatives, or whether we are better under WM rule where neoliberalism is set for the foreseeable future, or under whatever government we may elect under independence.<br /><br />But he also misses the point that for many Independence isn't primarily about economics, it's about civic nationalism, self-determination, making our own decisions. And, sorting out what an ex-HBOS exec this morning called the "nexus between power and wealth" in all its forms, including getting those of us who can afford it to pay more taxes.<br /><br />Now that's a real intellectual challenge for politicians and bloggers alike, to show imaginative leadership and convince people that rather than having a two tier welfare state where the rich pay privately to jump the queue and monopolise scarce resources and the rest of us struggle or go without, we use that great invention, Tax, as an insurance policy, so that everybody gets according to their needs and not according to their bank balance.Geejayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14309811809080568373noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-46492638311842359252015-11-18T22:01:27.617+00:002015-11-18T22:01:27.617+00:00Alex Gallagher suggests that most Scots would agre...Alex Gallagher suggests that most Scots would agree with him. Where is his evidence for this? The fact that Alex is a member of Scottish Labour appears to be evidence enough.Andrew Mortonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05562143171249446260noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-40052997815341841642015-11-18T21:47:21.149+00:002015-11-18T21:47:21.149+00:00I don't think Alex Bell claims to be a "c...I don't think Alex Bell claims to be a "critical friend". He's making a critical observation. The question is whether that observation is true - for what it's worth I think it is - but maybe more importantly does it matter? In the immediate term, probably not. There won't be another referendum for some time and the SNP is riding high politically. Maybe in time the SNP's popularity will collapse under the contradictions of its policy directions, as seems to have happened to the Parti Québécois. But then, lots of things can happen in time.FFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16627719160178595437noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-52126938703799007872015-11-18T20:04:11.040+00:002015-11-18T20:04:11.040+00:00I believe your above comment contradicts this one ...I believe your above comment contradicts this one directly, or at least assumes different premises to attack the same target. I'm happy to talk constructively with unionists (if it helps, I've never been in the SNP and only voted for it once in a council election) but it's hard to know what you actually believe.<br /><br />So: are there no SNP members "with their wits about them", or are even the intelligent ones uncritical? Phrased otherwise: are they stupid or malicious?<br /><br />Further, I think the difference between Bell's writing and a fair criticism of the SNP (which you will see on this blog and at pubs and coffee shops across the country) is that Bell's writing, from what I have seen, is written in the confrontational and vindictive style of mainstream politics. It is combative and unhelpful in the capacity of a "critical friend", though useful as in his role as a critic (full stop). This is a direct result of the writer's background in the political class and it would well behove us to hope for better.<br /><br />None of this is controversial, and it's contained in the last few paragraphs of the blog on which we're commenting. I'm just curious what it is that you're hoping for?sdfhgkldfghjlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04967727239416248838noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-52437737022210583052015-11-18T13:58:58.284+00:002015-11-18T13:58:58.284+00:00I think that they sent David Livingstone off into ...I think that they sent David Livingstone off into the jungle a few years ago to search for critical thinking about the "named person" scheme. Arriving at the majestic vision of a waterfall on the Zambezi river, he thought that he could discern the words "illiberal... authoritarian..." echoing within the defeaning roar. And so he pressed on into the undergrowth, into the darkness, and he hasn't been seen since. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-47320211593350959172015-11-18T07:46:15.978+00:002015-11-18T07:46:15.978+00:00There is plenty of critical thinking going on at t...There is plenty of critical thinking going on at the level of the members of the SNP. It is very much alive and kicking there. What it is not is carried out on the pages of the Daily Ranger, Scotsman, Herald or to the BBC, which people increasingly are shutting off. <br /><br />This is what these titles want and need to help redress their falling sales and the BBC needs to find some viewer statistics.<br /><br />People discus and this is funneled upwards through MPs, SMPs, Councilors and candidates. It does get through.<br /><br />When the paid commentators chatter, they do do so for their shilling and Masters, and we must not let them deceive us into the trap of them setting the agenda. We do.Bugger le Pandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15924663556503952533noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-43278697425153404392015-11-18T03:10:00.840+00:002015-11-18T03:10:00.840+00:00And the ever courteous LPW also chose to omit ment...And the ever courteous LPW also chose to omit mention of Stephen Daisley's nasty, transphobic jibe in that article. I don't care what Daisley's sexuality or motivation was, ithe remark was, in my opinion, far beyond the pale as he is now.J. R. Tomlinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01109874615059334200noreply@blogger.com