tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post2791726570109511059..comments2024-03-28T07:16:39.621+00:00Comments on Lallands Peat Worrier: Kerr & Gray at odds on the cost of Labour's knife policy...Lallands Peat Worrierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18276270498204697708noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-9439613642042664062011-04-23T21:22:57.466+01:002011-04-23T21:22:57.466+01:00Belatedly, thanks for the link Anonymous. Your hun...Belatedly, thanks for the link Anonymous. Your hunch was fully borne out, as we saw on Newsnicht, by closer investigation!Lallands Peat Worrierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07238432265194046726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-63784976938370012012011-04-18T08:17:15.967+01:002011-04-18T08:17:15.967+01:00Knife crime and NHS costs:
StraightStatistics say...Knife crime and NHS costs:<br /><br />StraightStatistics say that Labour's figures are 'fantasy':<br /><br />http://www.straightstatistics.org/article/it’s-election-time-think-number-big-numberAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-39853761079185935062011-04-09T20:41:28.940+01:002011-04-09T20:41:28.940+01:00and as a ps to my comment above.
Oldnat says that...and as a ps to my comment above.<br /><br />Oldnat says that NHS Scotland doesn't keep costs on these. I'm sure you are correct. But NHS Scotland do publish figures on costs and hospital cases (admissions, A&E) that would allow some ballpark estimates. And there might be other research out there that would help.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-67386089387135046772011-04-09T20:37:13.372+01:002011-04-09T20:37:13.372+01:00On Kerr's NHS knife crime costs: seems that th...On Kerr's NHS knife crime costs: seems that the MAV '£500million' was for all assaults, not just knife crime. Check the MAV quotes in Herald and Scotman in 2008.<br /><br />That alone would blow a big hole in Kerr's statements. After all, what proportion of all hospital assault cases are due to knife crime?<br /><br />But, I would still query the £500million even if it were based on all assaults. Seems way too high for me. Would it be a UK figure? I don't know but it might fit better.<br /><br />Good luck with your digging - plenty to find, I think.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-34323707765600916702011-04-09T19:27:34.978+01:002011-04-09T19:27:34.978+01:00Anonymous, oldnat,
That issue is on next week'...Anonymous, oldnat,<br /><br />That issue is on next week's list of things <i>to do</i>. I didn't want to bore the socks off of everyone by devoting a whole week to the issue of knife crime. Certainly, the claims about the cost to the NHS deserve closer examination, in the spirit of fair-minded scrutiny of the proposals. Personally, I think Kerr's account of minimum sentencing on <i>Newsnicht</i> was most concerning, as was his fobbing off of the scenario put to him by Brewer. I've had my say before on mandatory sentencing in the area of gun possession (<a href="http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.com/2010/07/gail-cochrane-minimum-sentences-in.html" rel="nofollow">cf this</a> and the happy <a href="http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.com/2010/11/mercy-gun-granny-freed.html" rel="nofollow">conclusion to Gail Cochrane's case)</a>. I certainly intend to give this issue a thorough going over before polling day.Lallands Peat Worrierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07238432265194046726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-31434807967065355422011-04-09T18:20:05.444+01:002011-04-09T18:20:05.444+01:00The £500 million figure comes from the campaigning...The £500 million figure comes from the campaigning group "Medics Against Violence". I can't find any analysis that backs up that number and NHS Scotland doesn't keep figures on it.<br /><br />In 2007 an anlysis estimated that cost of ALL violence to the NHS in the west of Scotland was £3.5m per annum.<br /><br />Since all the evidence is that overall violence and specifically knife crime is worst in the West, £5m pa for all NHS costs due to violence in all Scotland seems most likely.oldnatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-58901897623751691332011-04-09T13:59:44.957+01:002011-04-09T13:59:44.957+01:00LPW - excellent stuff. Rather easy to tear Labour ...LPW - excellent stuff. Rather easy to tear Labour to shreds, but good on you for doing so. I just wish that 'mainstream media' would do this.<br /><br />Can I suggest that you get tore in to Andy Kerr's Newnight comments on the knife crime costs to the NHS? He said, repeatedly, that it equated to £500million, or 3.6% of the NHS budget. I can't believe this figures, way way too high. My very quick estimate, from published NHS statistics, suggest that the costs might be in the order of £5million. My quick estimate might not be accurate, but is surely closer than £500million. Needs someone to do more working on this, is it £5million, £10million, whatever.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-28320649353712406812011-04-08T11:56:23.376+01:002011-04-08T11:56:23.376+01:00Stuart, Doug,
There is a fascinating literature o...Stuart, Doug,<br /><br />There is a fascinating literature on "law as regulation", in the broad sense, interested in what role, if any law has in terms of bringing about or constraining conduct. Although the studies have different approaches and conclusions, they tend to emphasise the limits of law's regulatory capacity - emphasising the way broader social values regulate human conduct. The next-day absence of smoke in Scotland's pubs, after the Act came into effect, is a fascinating case in point. <br /><br />On knife crime, the broader social context and the role of apprehensions about legal sanctions, you might be interested <a href="http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.com/2010/09/gang-membership-knife-carrying-in.html" rel="nofollow">in this post from September 2010, which links to and summarises two pieces of fascinating research on attitudes and knife-carrying behaviour amongst young Scots.</a>Lallands Peat Worrierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18276270498204697708noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-88302624021820947522011-04-08T11:16:22.327+01:002011-04-08T11:16:22.327+01:00Got it in one Dram - but its better than that, it ...Got it in one Dram - but its better than that, it can be applied to everything and mean something or nothing.<br /><br />It can square circles and turn truths into lies, lies into truths or fill vacuity with words - it is in effect the grail of political purpose.Crinkly & Ragged Arsed Philosophershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08902364411241935656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-47708172981762849732011-04-08T08:53:11.138+01:002011-04-08T08:53:11.138+01:00Doug said:
"It's not going to act as a d...Doug said:<br /><br />"It's not going to act as a deterrent. Killing people results in many years in jail, but there are still murders committed in Scotland. Killing used to result in capital punishment, but people still committed murders."<br /><br />But I suspect that if murder was 'decriminalised' then killings would increase significantly!!<br /><br />And slightly off topic but on the same theme, it's interesting to juxtapose LPW's graph showing an increasing prison population with the 30-year low in crime we keep hearing about!<br /><br />And as regards wrongdoing at the other end of the seriousness scale, I wonder how the supposed near 100% compliance with the smoking ban with little in the way of enforcement measures compares to the widespread flouting of the ban on using mobile phones while driving, for example, despite a fair number of fines being handed out?Stuart Wintonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02772436419630464325noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-18928263945343184522011-04-07T23:53:35.600+01:002011-04-07T23:53:35.600+01:00Ah, BBB as in Bull droppings baffles brains I pres...Ah, BBB as in Bull droppings baffles brains I presume. But then, I was kick out of the maths class so it may mean something elseDramfinedayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15317798317549135378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-70511686292211585392011-04-07T20:09:56.606+01:002011-04-07T20:09:56.606+01:00It's the new enlightenment:
X ~ Y = X ~ Y = X2...It's the new enlightenment:<br />X ~ Y = X ~ Y = X2 ~ Y2 = BBBCrinkly & Ragged Arsed Philosophershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08902364411241935656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-53692320502000401532011-04-07T19:18:10.541+01:002011-04-07T19:18:10.541+01:00They'll have to wrest my penknife from my cold...They'll have to wrest my penknife from my cold dead hands...<br /><br />A friend of my nephew, having just passed his test, bought himself a banger and proceeded to run it off the road.<br />The vehicle ignited, not with the bang beloved of Hollywood, but more like a Boy Scouts smouldering campfire.<br />You have no doubt guessed it by now; the seatbelt was stuck and his trainers were melting to his feet.<br />A passing leatherman wielding lorry driver had him out in a trice.<br />Blades can be used for saving lives too...Conan the Librarian™https://www.blogger.com/profile/01904339261121451779noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-21668530823022122882011-04-07T14:41:06.219+01:002011-04-07T14:41:06.219+01:00An Duine Gruamach,
Some of the confusion here is ...An Duine Gruamach,<br /><br />Some of the confusion here is owed to the fact that there are a couple of £20-21 million figures floating about. Firstly, there is the Liberal estimate of the cost of higher prisoner numbers, secondly there is the Labour claim that their costing for the policy also amounts to £20-21 million. Labour have also been quoted in terms of the cost being £60 million over three years. <br /><br />The calculation is pretty basic, but it is <b>annual</b>. As a result, it will involve ongoing expenditure, at least in the short-medium term well beyond three years, if Labour's policy was adopted and maintained. Labour's hope is that the numbers fall off as a result of the deterrence effect. About this, I'm highly sceptical. For some of the reasons mentioned by Gordon Brewer on Newsnicht, it seems more likely to me that those imprisoned for knife crime would increase and increase - without falling off.<br /><br />Indy,<br /><br />As I've noted before, most recently at the very end of yesterday's post on this topic, I've been told a number of times by pro-Labour folk that this policy is "hot air" which they hope will prove politically useful. And grimly, it just might.Lallands Peat Worrierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07238432265194046726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-53207063315050218002011-04-07T14:33:42.635+01:002011-04-07T14:33:42.635+01:00DougDaniel,
I should say that I share your scepti...DougDaniel,<br /><br />I should say that I share your scepticism about the practical deterring effect of this proposal - and wouldn't want to concede that ground too Labour too freely. My comments on it in this post reflect, I suspect, my legal education. In particular, it is rather a neat legal technique, to try to demonstrate why your opponent's argument fails, even if a key line of their argument is accepted. So it is with deterrence, I believe. Even <i>if</i> mandatory prison terms did have a deterrent effect, it strikes me as exceedingly implausible that such an effect would be felt from the get-go. As a result, Labour really do have to contend with the prospect of an increased prison population in the short-medium term. <br /><br />Colin,<br /><br />Neatly put! Not, perhaps, his most elegant piece of political advocacy.<br /><br />Snooty,<br /><br />I'm having trouble finding the sense of it myself. On Twitter, one pro-Labour fellow is trying to argue that Kerr wasn't actually suggesting locking up 2,000 extra people - or increasing the Scottish prison population by 25%. I find this deeply unconvincing.Lallands Peat Worrierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07238432265194046726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-60558105474950965042011-04-07T13:26:16.712+01:002011-04-07T13:26:16.712+01:00They have no intention of actually doing it, so th...They have no intention of actually doing it, so the costings have probably not been worked out in any coherent way.<br /><br />It's a bit like their policy to provide an apprenticeship place for everyone who is suitably qualified. If they were remotely serious about that, they would be able to put some kind of figure on it.<br /><br />The Labourites out there will say ah hah but the SNP manifesto in 2007 contained various pledges which weren't properly costed and weren't implemented. And that would be a fair cop guv in some instances.<br /><br />But I would be very surprised if the 2011 SNP manifesto contained any such pledges. Once bitten twice shy and all that. <br /><br />Which makes it all the more difficult to understand why Labour, with 8 years in government behind them and 4 years of taunting the SNP over broken pronises, should have come up with such a litany of nonsense for 2011.<br /><br />Anyone would think they don't actually want to win ............Indyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04383904151475839441noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-15223172256849655382011-04-07T12:49:53.507+01:002011-04-07T12:49:53.507+01:00Lallans - I'm a at a wee bit o a loss here - i...Lallans - I'm a at a wee bit o a loss here - is thon twanty million feigur per anum or ower the life o the pairliament?An Duine Gruamachnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-50716686678592578872011-04-07T12:26:26.672+01:002011-04-07T12:26:26.672+01:00They just go on digging that hole.
If they had an...They just go on digging that hole.<br /><br />If they had any brains they could be dangerous.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-83089779959882492342011-04-07T11:23:28.532+01:002011-04-07T11:23:28.532+01:00Andy Kerr fails the Turing Test.Andy Kerr fails the Turing Test.rullkohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06468064035662238392noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-46331285087264075212011-04-07T11:21:33.707+01:002011-04-07T11:21:33.707+01:00It's not going to act as a deterrent. Killing ...It's not going to act as a deterrent. Killing people results in many years in jail, but there are still murders committed in Scotland. Killing used to result in capital punishment, but people still committed murders.<br /><br />The kind of people who would be deterred by this policy are the type of people who already wouldn't carry a knife. We need to focus on preventing the situations which lead to people carrying knives in the first place, and mandatory 6 month sentences are so blatantly not the answer.<br /><br />When will such reactionary politics stop being attractive to large sections of the electorate?Doug Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15017218581660887134noreply@blogger.com