tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post6971303498967724243..comments2024-03-28T07:16:39.621+00:00Comments on Lallands Peat Worrier: Vote Green ... or UKIP gets it.Lallands Peat Worrierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18276270498204697708noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-19106763830754618242014-01-21T14:52:25.854+00:002014-01-21T14:52:25.854+00:00I refer the Honourable Member to that learned poli...I refer the Honourable Member to that learned political analyst, Lady Bracknell: <i>"To leave one political party may be regarded as a misfortune; to leave two looks like carelessness."</i>Lallands Peat Worrierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07238432265194046726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-26889353254563292582014-01-21T09:55:48.172+00:002014-01-21T09:55:48.172+00:00Yeh agree with Doug about the Tasmanian Swivel. Bo...Yeh agree with Doug about the Tasmanian Swivel. Both Churchill and Jimmy Reid switched parties more than once, but it would be a considerable stretch to apply such precedents to the egregious Tasmina. We should all be open to change to some extent, but that one is more a case of revolving doors.Edwin Moorehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05317173893948248954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-60975774304086153222014-01-21T04:33:45.572+00:002014-01-21T04:33:45.572+00:00On the dispersal of the Liberal vote, Professor Ja...On the dispersal of the Liberal vote, Professor James Mitchell et al had some interesting analysis in their <i>Scottish Election Survey</i>. As you might expect, it presented a more complex picture than a straightforward Lib Dem > Nationalist drift.Lallands Peat Worrierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07238432265194046726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-89326357477629533602014-01-21T02:38:43.517+00:002014-01-21T02:38:43.517+00:00Part of the ex Libdem vote has gone to the SNP ove...Part of the ex Libdem vote has gone to the SNP over the betrayal of Home Rule/Devo Max like... er.. me. I suspect the general rise in political engagement this year is going to see an unusually high turnout for a European Election.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16613242334330613213noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-78812714540627479472014-01-21T00:38:05.598+00:002014-01-21T00:38:05.598+00:00And yes, there's no question that some capers ...And yes, there's no question that some capers were cut to Tasmina's benefit. Lallands Peat Worrierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07238432265194046726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-89499880608986415732014-01-21T00:02:45.457+00:002014-01-21T00:02:45.457+00:00Thanks Edwin. Dunno about the Fife by-election. Sa...Thanks Edwin. Dunno about the Fife by-election. Saving their not-very-substantial funds for Europe, perhaps? On tactical voting, I think it is quite unlikely in general, unless one of the political parties manages to frame the election along the lines suggested by the Greens. One obvious reason for this: folk don't generally know how the EU vote is allocated. You can't game what you can't understand. Lallands Peat Worrierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07238432265194046726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-49711868694060672382014-01-20T23:59:42.056+00:002014-01-20T23:59:42.056+00:00Of that Doug, I'm happy to reassure you! No se...Of that Doug, I'm happy to reassure you! No secret blue rosette stuffed down her stock. Lallands Peat Worrierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07238432265194046726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-75348407737713259002014-01-20T23:22:27.865+00:002014-01-20T23:22:27.865+00:00I reckon I would prefer Maggie, to be honest. I do...I reckon I would prefer Maggie, to be honest. I don't like the way the SNP leadership made such an obvious play to get Tasmina ranked above other candidates, and the two times I've seen her talking (an SNP conference and the indy rally last year), I just felt like there was a slight lack of sincerity or something.<br /><br />(And Maggie's never stood as a Tory candidate as far as I'm aware...)Doug Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15017218581660887134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-46042024690553112102014-01-20T20:37:28.482+00:002014-01-20T20:37:28.482+00:00Great stuff again LPW. It does seem improbable tha...Great stuff again LPW. It does seem improbable that UKIP could sneak a seat - I mind that fascinating Better Nation post that suggested it as a possibiity, but they have been beating the Greens in Holyrood by-elections, Puzzled as to why the Greens arent contesting Cowdenbeath.<br /><br />Not sure how much tactical voting will go on - not even sure hiw many voters will come out.<br /><br /><br />Edwin Moorehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05317173893948248954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-11194504001815015442014-01-20T18:29:57.798+00:002014-01-20T18:29:57.798+00:00A mischievous question, DJ! I'm well-disposed ...A mischievous question, DJ! I'm well-disposed to Maggie, knowing her personally, as a decent, honest, smart and committed soul. I don't know Tasmina so cast no aspersions, but even on a generous interpretation, I'd expect Maggie to have the greater balance of virtues. Is that a defensible political principle - support your pal?Lallands Peat Worrierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07238432265194046726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-14967454353401290872014-01-20T16:49:16.816+00:002014-01-20T16:49:16.816+00:00Would you prefer Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh or Maggie Ch...Would you prefer Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh or Maggie Chapman to be an MEP?DJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17975889282311497314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-35574360742161957822014-01-20T16:12:12.128+00:002014-01-20T16:12:12.128+00:00Yeah, I've been swithering between voting SNP ...Yeah, I've been swithering between voting SNP as usual or going Green this time, since I would like the Greens to have more electoral success, and I wasn't convinced the SNP could get a third MEP without a pretty substantial rise in votes. But looking at the figures a while back (http://albamatters.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/why-ukip-wont-get-mep-in-scotland-in.html - I've done the D'Hondt calculations a bit differently, but they come to the same figures) it showed me that the SNP are well within reach of nicking that 6th seat, and that it was the Tories that were the main challengers, rather than the Greens. In fact, the SNP were under 800 votes away from having even their FOURTH candidate ahead of the Greens in the pecking order<br /><br />It all depends how the Lib Dem vote splits. If they were to lose half their vote - call it an even 60,000 - then UKIP would need to attract just about every single one of them in order to stand a chance, and even then they're left hoping the SNP or Tories don't get a better result than 2009. What are the chances of people moving en masse from the pro-EU Lib Dems to the anti-EU UKIP, though? On the other hand, if those ex-Lib Dem voters moved evenly to the Greens and Labour, then the Greens would get in (again, as long as the SNP and Tories remain static).<br /><br />There's no danger of the SNP losing a seat - they could shed 100,000 voters and still comfortably retain their two MEPs. But assuming those ex-Lib Dem voters are mainly unionist, then it wouldn't take many of them to switch to the Tories to get them a second seat. However, if SNP voters want to ensure that 6th seat goes to a pro-independence candidate (and Maggie Chapman is definitely pro-independence), then instead of trying to add an extra few thousand to the SNP's 2009 total, perhaps it would be safer to have 80,000 - 90,000 vote for the Greens instead of the SNP, just in case the SNP fail to attract enough new votes. Even 40,000 would probably be enough.<br /><br />But UKIP? Not happening.Doug Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15017218581660887134noreply@blogger.com