tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post5389127483869889168..comments2024-03-28T07:16:39.621+00:00Comments on Lallands Peat Worrier: 2014 Euro Elections: The power of three? Lallands Peat Worrierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18276270498204697708noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-21749250246752798262013-03-28T19:49:21.163+00:002013-03-28T19:49:21.163+00:00Edwin, Doug,
Natalie's a personal friend of m...<b>Edwin, Doug,</b><br /><br />Natalie's a personal friend of mine, so I can't pretend towards impartiality in her case. A grand belle, she. Sorry not to see her in the final six.Lallands Peat Worrierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07238432265194046726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-63693781826394603582013-03-28T14:07:48.108+00:002013-03-28T14:07:48.108+00:00Agree about Natalie McGarry, one of the very few o...Agree about Natalie McGarry, one of the very few other Scottish political blogs I look at. Fair and argues her case well. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Edwin Moorehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05317173893948248954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-59177036631037873982013-03-28T09:44:41.383+00:002013-03-28T09:44:41.383+00:00Edwin,
A neat spot, showing the peril of the inte...<b>Edwin,</b><br /><br />A neat spot, showing the peril of the internet record. While the candidate may seamlessly, forgetfully transition from party to party, her old convictions are laid bare.<br /><br /><b>Doug,</b><br /><br />Indeed. And I understand that there was some helpful timing on that score at Conference too. The evening before the European vote, as the party's Women's Officer, Ahmed-Sheikh was given the opportunity to launch the SNP's "women's college" - no, I'm not entirely sure what that means either - in an evening which all female delegates were invited to. Again, just a happy accident I'm sure.Lallands Peat Worrierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07238432265194046726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-84930044909950556852013-03-28T09:22:26.889+00:002013-03-28T09:22:26.889+00:00The latest SNP newsletter dedicated an entire page...The latest SNP newsletter dedicated an entire page (in a four-page newsletter) to Tasmina, talking (if I remember correctly) about getting more women into front-line politics. I think it's fair to say the leadership want her pushed to the front of the queue.<br /><br />It's a shame she's the only woman on the shortlist. I would have liked Natalie McGarry on there as well - at the very least she is SNP through and through, and while I had misgivings about Tasmina's speech at last year's Spring conference, Natalie's contribution to the NATO debate was excellent.Doug Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15017218581660887134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-74473266092167269682013-03-28T08:42:40.852+00:002013-03-28T08:42:40.852+00:00Ach you're probably right LPW.
For entertain...Ach you're probably right LPW. <br /><br />For entertainment, here is Tasmina's Tory pitch for Govan back in 99 -<br /><br />'For Ahmed-Sheikh, who has translated her manifesto into Urdu and Punjabi, the alternative is obvious. Labour has become complacent, the SNP is referendum-obsessed; Tory values are Asian values, she argues.<br /><br />'The strong sense of the family unit, the desire to bring up children in a stable environment, that's very similar to Conservative family values. All those who came over here from the Asian nations 30 or 40 years ago had to sustain themselves without any handouts: if you wanted to put food on your family's table, you had to find a job.'<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/1999/may/04/gender.ukEdwin Moorehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05317173893948248954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-7137057226575397972013-03-27T23:42:33.227+00:002013-03-27T23:42:33.227+00:00Edwin,
Not a convincing analysis from Better Nati...<b>Edwin,</b><br /><br />Not a convincing analysis from Better Nation, to my mind. Scanty chance of Scotland electing its first UKIP MEP any time soon, by my reckoning, and I think the data bears this out. Plenty of other folk to profit from Liberal difficulties, before Nickel Foorage's crew...Lallands Peat Worrierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07238432265194046726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-379997151057939672013-03-27T22:47:44.538+00:002013-03-27T22:47:44.538+00:00Hmm at betternation there was an argument that UK...Hmm at betternation there was an argument that UKIP might actually nick a Scottish MEP seat - <br /><br />http://www.betternation.org/2013/01/could-ukip-nick-a-scottish-mep-seat/<br /><br />I dislike analogies with fitba - an increasingly irrelevant phenomenon in Scotland - but just as no one seems to know exactly why we have become so dire at booting balls, so no one fully understands our politics. We all think we know why the far left has conked out, but is our politics really so entwined with personality that the dissipation of Sheridan means that Scottish Spartism is dead? And I share the bafflement that the Greens seem to have entered the Shadowlands in Scotland - why for heaven's sake? <br /><br />As for the rise of shape shifters such as Tasmina, alas 'twas ever thus. We can expect to see much more of the placepeople realigning their bums onto comfy seats, and their beady eyes shining from fresh platforms. <br /><br />Oh and hi Thomas - we used to work together!Edwin Moorehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05317173893948248954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-4996826511217967512013-03-26T13:04:44.202+00:002013-03-26T13:04:44.202+00:00On a related note. Apportionment and the European ...On a related note. Apportionment and the European Parliament is an interesting area. <br /><br />If you look at the table a little down the page on this link and click to organise it by number of MEPs (from lowest to highest) and/or "influence" (highest to lowest) it paints an interesting picture as to how different the position in this body might be for an independent Scotland. <br /><br />Inhabitants per MEP is an interesting read as well.<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apportionment_in_the_European_Parliament <br />Michael Greenwellhttp://michaelgreenwell.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-89347704922270630832013-03-26T12:17:59.315+00:002013-03-26T12:17:59.315+00:00Thanks for the reference, Thomas. Since universit...Thanks for the reference, <b>Thomas</b>. Since university, I've not been terrifically hot on EU matters, so that was news to me. Interesting.Lallands Peat Worrierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07238432265194046726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-17861982185770946932013-03-25T23:37:21.391+00:002013-03-25T23:37:21.391+00:00Here's what Wikipedia says: "It is conven...Here's what <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_the_European_Parliament" rel="nofollow">Wikipedia says</a>: "It is conventional for countries acceding to the European Union to send a number of observers to Parliament in advance. The number of observers and their method of appointment (usually by national parliaments) is laid down in the joining countries' Treaties of Accession.<br />Observers may attend debates and take part by invitation, but they may not vote or exercise other official duties. When the countries then become full member states, these observers become full MEPs for the interim period between accession and the next European elections. From 26 September 2005 to 31 December 2006, Bulgaria had 18 observers in Parliament and Romania 35. These were selected from government and opposition parties as agreed by the countries' national parliaments. Following accession on 1 January 2007, the observers became MEPs (with some personnel changes)."<br />If I understand this correctly, as soon as Scotland starts negotiating the terms for EU membership, the 6 Scottish MEPs will be replaced by 13 observers. Or will the 6 MEPs remain, and there will simply be 7 additional observers?Thomas Widmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00556092637506486689noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-66302948439055685362013-03-25T18:41:38.298+00:002013-03-25T18:41:38.298+00:00Doug, Fourfolksache,
I suppose it remains to be s...<b>Doug, Fourfolksache,</b><br /><br />I suppose it remains to be seen how the membership will rank the remaining six. Who knows whether Tasmina will prosper there, though through conference and other mediums, I gather she's been garnering some useful exposure which may weigh with the most active part of the party's membership (who are presumably also most likely to vote). In idle moments, was swithering about a Green vote too, depending on the circumstances. Maggie is a personal friend, a wonderful fierce woman, and would I'm sure make for a grand MEP. <br /><br /><b>Thomas,</b><br /><br />Interesting point. Heaven knows how we'd work that out. Muddle on through, no doubt, or wait till the next Europe-wide poll in 2018, two years after we embark on life as a fully independent nation-state? It isn't a terrifically long period of time.<br /><br /><b>oldnat,</b><br /><br />I've got several pals in the Scottish Greens, but remain pretty leery about enthusiastic expectations that they'll significantly expand the vote. Like many (and I dare say, many in the party) their failure to capitalise on the Liberal drift was quite startling. Lesson: maybe we need to revise our ideas about who votes Liberal, Green, and why.<br /><br /><br /><br />Lallands Peat Worrierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07238432265194046726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-56584867670585112602013-03-25T18:35:49.113+00:002013-03-25T18:35:49.113+00:00Thanks for spotting that and speaking up, Anonymou...Thanks for spotting that and speaking up, <b>Anonymous</b>. Saved me (albeit a bit later than would be ideal) from further propounding my error! Hopefully the new charts should reflect the underlying assumptions I made and the allocation rules now.Lallands Peat Worrierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07238432265194046726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-78694593707043519132013-03-25T18:09:12.170+00:002013-03-25T18:09:12.170+00:00Also worth noting the rise in the Green vote in th...Also worth noting the rise in the Green vote in the latest Panelbase poll - giving them 8 List seats at Holyrood on the Scotland Votes calculator.<br /><br />That might be interesting for EU elections.oldnatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-16761952642816911042013-03-25T17:05:28.661+00:002013-03-25T17:05:28.661+00:00Thomas - here's a thought. If Scotland has to ...Thomas - here's a thought. If Scotland has to join the EU as a new member state, then surely the 6 MEPs who would currently be sitting in the Espace LĂ©opold as UK MEPs for the Scotland constituency would lose their seats, and Scotland would have to hold its first ever European election? The very existence of these 6 MEPs surely highlights the fact that Scotland is already in the EU.<br /><br />Either way, surely a sort of Scotland-wide by-election is not beyond the realms of possibility? I'm not really sure I want people representing Scotland who were elected while trying to stop Scotland becoming independent.Doug Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15017218581660887134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-18169926269322900392013-03-25T16:51:44.441+00:002013-03-25T16:51:44.441+00:00Another point of interest is that if Scotland vote...Another point of interest is that if Scotland votes for independence in 2014 and manages to complete the revision of the EU membership terms (or admission to the EU, as the case may be) before 2019, Scotland's representation in the European Parliament will jump up from 6 to 13 members, and the easiest way to find these would be to pull in people from further down the list from the 2014 elections.<br />Because of this, it could become important who's ranked 4 and 5 for the SNP, 3 for Labour, etc.Thomas Widmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00556092637506486689noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-37423621865996527182013-03-25T15:06:26.740+00:002013-03-25T15:06:26.740+00:00I have to say I am more than a little disappointed...I have to say I am more than a little disappointed that Mrs Tasmina Sheikh Ahmed who is obviously a carpetbagger of no shame is deemed to be so politically desirable.She must have jumped the queue in front of many hardworking candidates! And as for her daughter getting the honour of 25000th member! If the cause was not so important I'd bring her down to being the 24999th member by resigning!!!!Fourfolksachehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12651190231842907126noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-54300775873500181802013-03-25T14:55:37.735+00:002013-03-25T14:55:37.735+00:00or even doubled-up! Doh!or even doubled-up! Doh!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-28678528315852860262013-03-25T14:55:06.811+00:002013-03-25T14:55:06.811+00:00think you may have soubled-up in the second graph ...think you may have soubled-up in the second graph as well... By my reckoning, and all things being equal, if the SNP vote goes up by 5% it almost guarantees a third seatAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-70782722039436225842013-03-25T14:47:43.615+00:002013-03-25T14:47:43.615+00:00Ah, for heavens sake. Absolutely right, Anonymous....Ah, for heavens sake. Absolutely right, Anonymous. Despite describing the process correctly, I unaccountably totted up the divider incorrectly in the last round. Updating now.Lallands Peat Worrierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07238432265194046726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-130024007185594132013-03-25T14:17:48.885+00:002013-03-25T14:17:48.885+00:00I found it a bit odd to see Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh i...I found it a bit odd to see Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh in the running, since she's on the Yes Scotland board of advisers. If she succeeds in getting elected as an MEP, that would give the SNP two elected politicians on the advisory board, giving opponents more reason to conclude that Yes Scotland = SNP. I'm not sure I want that. (Besides which, I recall Tasmina speaking at the spring conference last year, and I felt distinctly underwhelmed. At the time I thought maybe she just hadn't done much public speaking, but that seems doubtful if she actually stood as a Tory candidate in 1999...)<br /><br />I was actually hoping the Greens might steal the Lib Dem seat, if only because having a Green getting elected in 2014 would be a nice little reminder in the run up to the referendum that the SNP aren't the only pro-indy party, and Maggie Chapman is most certainly pro-independence. I also suspected the SNP would need quite a lot more in order to get a third MEP anyway, so was even considering voting for the Greens myself. I'll maybe wait and see how the list pans out before deciding for sure.Doug Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15017218581660887134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1638916042737526171.post-53657717252453726012013-03-25T14:06:57.306+00:002013-03-25T14:06:57.306+00:00I may be wrong, or it may simply be that whatever ...I may be wrong, or it may simply be that whatever you produced your graphical representation on doesn't show the situation subtly enough, but I'm pretty sure that the divisor after the allocation of a second seat becomes 3. The graph makes it look like the SNP's already-divided vote is divided by 3 following allocation of the second seat in 2009, effectively dividing the original vote by 6. My memory of 2009 was that the SNP weren't all that far off getting a third seat, at the expense of Labour getting a second.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com